-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
899
FXUS61 KBTV 242302
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure causing showers this afternoon and evening
will move east tonight, and high pressure builds in for tomorrow.
This will lead to a sunny and much warmer day. A cold front
approaches on Wednesday and brings the possibility for strong storms
and heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...Showers are rapidly tapering off this
evening and a decrease in cloud cover through the evening and
overnight hours is expected. With the recent rainfall, it`s
likely we see patchy, if not widespread, fog toward daybreak on
Tuesday. Overall, it`ll be a quiet night. Enjoy!

Previous Discussion...Showers are expected to dwindle this
evening and tonight as low pressure moves off to the east and is
replaced by building high pressure and ridging. Any additional
rainfall from lingering showers will amount to up to 0.25". Ridging
will also allow skies to gradually clear throughout the night
tonight, and temperatures should drop into the 50s for most, which
is roughly seasonable for late June in our forecast area. With
clearing skies, high pressure subsidence, and recent rainfall, there
is the potential for some patchy fog tonight, particularly in the
more typical valleys spots.

The ridge will crest over us tomorrow, and 925mb temperatures are
expected to be in the 22-24 C range, which should allow surface
temperatures to climb into the 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Increasing
moisture in the atmosphere and a shortwave trough will bring clouds
into the area from the west throughout the day tomorrow, which could
limit temperatures slightly. Tomorrow night, a warm front will cross
the forecast area, producing some light rain showers, most likely
over northern New York and northern Vermont. Rain will be light,
perhaps up to a tenths of an inch at most. This warm front and the
increased clouds will allow low temperatures to simmer in the 60s
throughout tomorrow night, a noticeable difference from the cooler
weather we expect tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Model evolution for Wednesday system has
changed a bit from runs 12- 24 hours ago. Most feature a slightly
more southerly track resulting in a shift in best instability and
track of heaviest rainfall. As such, daytime precipitation chances
were largely reduced early Monday before increasing again Monday
afternoon and overnight. The system trajectory is now favored more
on a southwest/northeast track in the consensus with moderate rain
probable across mainly southern Vermont. NAM/mesoscale models
continue to be drier with an even farther south placement of the
surface low and could see a forecast trend in this direction should
other global models/ensembles trend similarly. Still, ample
moisture, a forcing mechanism, and elevated instability will keep
chances of thunderstorms going late Wednesday into the overnight
hours before the surface feature tracks eastward into Maine by
Thursday morning. Temperatures should warm into the 80s during the
day temperatures cooling into the 50s and 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Shower chances diminish early Thursday with
cool air advection and building high pressure under northerly flow.
Dry conditions will likely prevail into the weekend with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 60s to the mid/upper 70s Thursday and
Friday. Conditions begin to change Saturday ahead of the next system
projected to move through the region. Southerly flow will likely
increase as models show an amplified trough approaching the region.
Thermal/pressure gradients will be moderately tight resulting in
some southerly breezes likely into the 20-30mph range. While the
system has system has some robust characteristics and upper level
support, amplitude of the longwave favors a fast moving wave. Timing
will be key in determining characteristics of sensible weather, but
right now frontal passage is favored over Saturday night. Some
thunderstorms are projected off of elevated instability and relative
forcing, but the nocturnal passage will limit overall strength.
Could see another round of moderate rainfall with this system
keeping soils wet. High pressure appears poised to fill in behind
this wave with dry conditions probable to start the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Low pressure is producing showers and
gusty winds across the forecast area this afternoon, which is
making for a challenging first 6 hours of the TAF period from
18Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday. Conditions will be up and down from
VFR to MVFR to even IFR at any given site in heavy gusty
showers. Winds in these showers will be out of the
northwest with gusts 15-25 knots until around 00Z Tuesday. Then,
the trend will be improving conditions 00Z onward as showers
dwindle and skies begin to clear. However, attention will then
turn to the potential for mist or fog to impact TAF sites
overnight tonight. Most likely period will be 06Z-12Z for fog,
per usual, but some spots might experience fog a little earlier,
perhaps starting around 03Z-06Z. Winds during this period should
be light and variable or calm.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through
about 8 PM due to winds 15-25 knots, gusts up to around 30
knots, and waves building to 3-5 feet in gusty showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Clay/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...Team BTV