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457
FXUS62 KCAE 141744
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
144 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front moves in from the north Saturday, with gradually
increasing moisture into early next week with high pressure off
the mid Atlantic Coast. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and
evening convection possible through the middle of next week.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s
throughout much of the forecast period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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This afternoon: Hot and dry conditions continue with high
pressure in control of the weather. Latest satellite imagery
shows a few cumulus starting to bubble up over parts of the
Midlands and CSRA. Temperatures are on track to reach the
mid-90s with only a light northerly wind expected. It will be
important to take breaks in a cool location and hydrate if
spending time outside.

Tonight: Clouds should dissipate with the setting sun, allowing
skies to become clear overnight. A cold front will be north of
the region much of the night, but may approach the northern cwa
towards morning. Airmass remains dry, so no rainfall expected
along the front as it moves towards the area. Light winds
tonight with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday should be the hottest day of the weekend before a weak
cold front pushes into the region from the north and then stalls
out somewhere across the southern cwa Saturday night. Meanwhile
aloft, a building upper ridge will begin moving across the area
into Sunday. Moisture remains limited ahead of the front for
much of the cwa. Exception may be across the very southern and
southeastern counties where there may be enough low-level
moisture that advects inland from the coast to produce isolated
showers or storms late in the afternoon Saturday. The bigger
issue Saturday will actually be the afternoon temperatures. Even
with the front coming through most guidance has high
temperatures clustered in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index
values around 100 are expected. Saving grace to the heat index
readings is that the airmass will be relatively dry and RH
values will be reasonable. If you must be outside for extended
periods, be sure to take frequent breaks, hydrate well, and find
shade as much as possible.

Front stalls across the south by Sunday. Any isolated afternoon
rainfall potential will be confined to the southern Midlands and
CSRA during the afternoon hours, with the remainder of the
forecast area remaining on the dry side. Upper ridge continues
to build. There will be a slight increase in moisture and clouds
as winds turn more easterly. This should allow slightly cooler
temperatures in the afternoon, with highs in the lower to middle
90s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper ridge pattern will remain across the eastern US through
the period. Much of the period will continue to be on the dry
side, with maybe isolated late afternoon convection possible
across the eastern cwa closer to the coastal plain each day.
Confidence in any rainfall though is very low through the
period. High temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal in the low 90s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Some scattered daytime cumulus has been developing across the
region, and the cumulus field will remain until sunset. Bases
are between 5-6 kft, and basically scattered, so no ceiling
restrictions expected. Surface winds should continue to be
generally light and out of a northerly direction. Clear skies
and light or calm winds are expected tonight with no fog
concerns due to some wind in the boundary layer.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers
or thunderstorms are possible Saturday and especially Sunday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$