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095
FXUS62 KCAE 161647
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1247 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front moves northward and through the area through this
evening.. Thus, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon and evening. High pressure, drier conditions,
and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through
much of the upcoming week. Unsettled conditions are possible by
late in the week into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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This afternoon: Upper ridge remains across the region, while at
the surface the front that pushed into the area yesterday will
begin moving back to the north again later this afternoon. Winds
will turn more southerly as the front moves back to the north. In
addition, some sea- breeze interactions may become possible
through the afternoon. Moisture remains somewhat high, with pwat
values around 1.6 inches being indicated. Model soundings show
another afternoon of inverted-v profiles in the lower levels,
but some warm air in the mid-levels. Convective models indicate
that there will be another period of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing towards 18z again this
afternoon. Indications are that activity will initially be
across the eastern cwa along the coastal plain where current
satellite shows enhance cumulus already in place. Rain chances
then move more inland as the afternoon progresses. With the
higher pwats and potential slow movement of storms, periods of
heavy rainfall may be encountered. In addition, the inverted-v
nature of the soundings indicate another potential for strong
gusty winds with any storms. Can not rule out an isolated
severe storm, but organized severe weather not expected. Highs
still on track to reach into at least the lower 90s.

Tonight: Some areas will still encounter lingering convection
around sunset, but activity will diminish by 02z. Patchy fog may
be possible late tonight, especially in areas that get rainfall.
Much of tonight will be partly cloud, but towards morning some
stratus is expected. Overnight lows remain near 70.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas on Monday and then
expands northward to the Mid Atlantic States and New England Tuesday
through Wednesday. This H5 high center shunts the best moisture to
the west of the region with precipitable water levels decreasing to
around one inch. This should lead to dry weather conditions and near
normal temperatures.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for the second
half of this week. The ensembles bring an inverted trough into the
Southeast U.S. Thursday through Thursday Night. The ensembles also
shift an H5 high pressure system southward in response to a
strengthening polar jet stream along the Canadian border near the
Great Lakes and New England. The ensembles vary on whether the H5
upper high center is directly over the Carolinas or offshore.

If the inverted trough moves onshore closer to the Midlands and
CSRA, the region would see a significant increase in moisture and
diurnal convective activity. Otherwise, if the H5 high centers
itself over the Carolinas, it should limit such convection. The
ensembles show a wide range on temperatures from Thursday
through next weekend which is indicative of model uncertainty.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions anticipated outside of any thunderstorm activity
through early tonight. A period of mvfr ceilings may be possible
Monday morning.

Some mid-level cloudiness across the region this afternoon as
moisture moves inland from the coast. Surface front is moving
back to the north as a warm front, and is now just north of the
Midlands taf locations of CAE/CUB. Sea-breeze is beginning to
bet more active along the coast, and this will be pushing some
increase rainfall chances inland through the afternoon and
evening. Vfr conditions will remain outside of thunderstorms,
with brief mvfr possible with any activity that impacts a terminal.
Due to low confidence, will not include any ts in initial taf
issuances. Winds will be out of the southeast around 5-10 kts,
then diminish to light and variable after 00z. Late tonight,
can not rule out patchy fog formation at the usual sites of
ags/ogb. Guidance is starting to show the potential for mvfr
stratus towards Monday morning, especially across the CSRA sites
of ags/dnl. Less likely at cae/cub/ogb, so will leave mention
out in those locations, but will also continue to monitor later
model trends.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$