-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
432
FXUS61 KCAR 202328
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
728 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the area this evening and will be
followed by high pressure on Friday. Low pressure will approach
on Saturday and track north of our area Sunday. A cold front
will cross the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
7PM Update...
A line of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front has cleared
offshore this evening, with additional convection developing
just west of the area. Some of this convection will return to
southwestern portions of the forecast area from about Bangor to
Bar Harbor over the next few hours. Some locally heavy rainfall
and lightning activity is possible in this area as dew points
remain in the low to mid 70s ahead of the front. However, severe
wind or hail is no longer anticipated and the severe
thunderstorm watch has been canceled given the impacts on the
environment from earlier thunderstorms.

Earlier storms have cooled off much of the hottest parts of the
area where heat advisories and excessive heat warnings were
posted. These have been canceled as heat indices have dropped
below thresholds. Humid conditions will continue, particularly
for Bangor and Downeast Maine this evening, before the cold
front moves through and brings drier air from northern Maine
over the rest of the area late tonight into early Friday
morning.

Previous Discussion...
The front exits off the coast later tonight. Still looking for
cooler temperatures and lower dew points to advect southward
tonight into Friday, but did bump up Friday highs slightly with
some low 80s Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday Night and Saturday...
Zonal WNW flow over the area with a strengthening WNW/ESE
oriented front positioned just south of our forecast area.
Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies Fri night/Sat Downeast, but partly
cloudy skies north. Also a chance of rain over southern portions
of the area with likely dry conditions in the north. Area will
be under a stable airmass on the north (cool) side of the
front, and don`t expect any thunderstorms. Some fog near the
coast.

Saturday Night...
The front to our south begins to creep north and close to
Downeast as a warm front, and expect increasing rain chances
from south to north as this occurs. Still expect the more
significant rain toward Sunday though.

Sunday...
As an upper trough approaches from the west, the warm front
extending east from an approaching surface low around Ottawa
continues to pivot north. Still some uncertainty on the frontal
positioning, but it appears the heavier rainfall will be over
Northern Maine just north of the warm front where good
overrunning will be occurring. Good shot that areas with the
best overrunning just north of the front could exceed an inch of
rain during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. Chance of
storms late in the day, best chance Downeast, in the warm sector
south of the warm front advancing north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure looks to track east across either Northern
Maine or just north of us Sun night/Mon, with a cold front
moving through around late Monday. Still a good amount of
uncertainty on how exactly things evolve, but looks like wet,
unsettled conditions Sun night/Mon with potential for
thunderstorms as well.

Looking for a bit of a break around Tuesday, but the next cold
front with shower/thunderstorm potential looks on track for
Wed/Thu. Still about 24 hours of timing uncertainty for this
Wed/Thu system.

Temperatures Sun night to Thu generally near or a bit warmer
than average.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR with NW winds 5-15 kts. Another round of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is possible this
evening through about 4-5z at KBGR and KBHB.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night and Saturday... VFR north. MVFR possibly developing
Downeast late Friday night into Saturday with potential for
light rain. Possible IFR or worse in low clouds and fog along
coast, including BHB late Fri night into Sat. Light winds
becoming S 5-10 kts Sat.

Saturday Night...IFR likely Downeast, including BHB/BGR, esp
after midnight. Generally VFR from HUL north. S wind 5 kts.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly MVR, with periods of IFR, with
rain and low clouds. Potential of storms Downeast Sunday and
areawide Monday. S winds around 10 kts.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Winds becoming NW around 10 kts, with
conditions gradually improving to mostly VFR for Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms are the primary threat through later
tonight along a slow-moving cold front. Winds will shift to
northwest later this evening, and eventually to northeast by
Friday morning. Seas are expected to remain around 2 to 3 feet,
but could be higher in and near convective showers and
thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM: Small craft level seas appear likely Sun night to
Tue morning, with the potential for small craft level winds as
well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
June 20th High Temperature Records (F):
(Observed)

Caribou (89) 93 in 2020
Bangor (96) 95 in 2020
Millinocket (94) 96 in 2020
Houlton (93) 94 in 2020
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW/MStrauser
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...MCW/MStrauser/Foisy
Marine...MCW/MStrauser/Foisy
Climate...MStrauser