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512
FXUS61 KCAR 220808
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
408 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build from Eastern Canada through Sunday
night while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further
out to sea. High pressure will crest over the area Monday then
retreat into the Maritimes Tuesday and Wednesday. Late week a
low pressure complex tracks through the area.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest Sat imagery shows tendrils of SC cldnss advcg wwrd from
the Gulf of St Lawrence consolidating ovr the Wrn NB highlands
just E of the ME/NB border. Meso model guidance brings some of
this cldnss into msly Nrn ptns of the FA this morn. Prior to
this cld cvr, a few Nrn vly lctns will cont to experience patchy
fog, which should end by mid morn.

Otherwise, skies will remain ptly to msly cldy tdy, with meso-
models indicating a weak llvl vort max advcg from the Gulf of St
Lawrence via across the Nrn NB highlands erly to mid Aftn,
possibly bringing lgt isold shwrs to far NE ptns of the FA at
this tm. Due to greater cld cvr, high temps this Aftn will be
several deg F cooler than ystdy aftn.

Skies look to partially clr ovr the FA this Eve, but how long
they remain msly clr into the Ovrngt remains uncertain, with
some meso-models indicating additional SC cld banding advcg wwrd
from NB late tngt into Mon Morn. For that reason and the lack of
low dwpts, that despite lgt and vrbl winds, radiational cooling
will likely not be great enough for temps to drop low enough for
late night frost across Nrn vlys.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure continues to be the dominating feature for the
short term, with temperatures around seasonable normals. Monday
will feature a Maritime surface high pressure in control with
light easterly winds and a lot of clouds. Temperatures will top
out in the low to mid 60s for the northern 1/2 of the CWA with
mid to upper 60s around Bangor Region and then low to mid 60s
Downeast. Interesting trend for Monday night into Tuesday is
modeled 850-250mb RHs have dropped to 30-40% range suggesting
less cloud cover. Opted to go with the NBM which turns skies
mostly clear Mon night. Expecting low to mid 40s across the area
as winds go calm. The 500mb ridge axis shifts basically overhead
and slightly east with light easterly winds continuing. Once
again expecting a lot more sun than previously expected with
drier air in the modeled soundings. Temperatures top out in the
mid to upper 60s with the warmest spots near Bangor.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Wednesday the pattern will begin to shift as the upper level
ridge moves eastward, allowing a trough to move in, bringing
precipitation across the area. Confidence is stronger that the
pattern will shift, however what will happen with the low/trough
that moves in is less certain. Model ensembles have a number of
different solutions, muddying the forecast for the end of the
week. This partially depends on how deep the upper level trough
becomes and whether it becomes negatively tilted, with a closed
upper level low forming somewhere over southern Canada or the
Midwest. There is potential for a surface low to develop over
the mid-Atlantic, moving northward and enhancing any precip that
falls Thursday and Friday. Deterministic runs of EC and
Canadian also show differences in whether the surface low
develops close to the coast and brings heavier bands of precip
onshore, or moves offshore more quickly. Given these differences
in the model runs, decided to keep pretty close to the previous
forecast for the Thursday through Saturday time period, keeping
precip over Maine. Temperatures will remain seasonable through
the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Tdy - Tngt...all TAF sites msly VFR with ocnl
MVFR - low VFR clgs. Patchy IFR/LIFR valley fog til 12z
this Morn at KPQI and KHUL. Lgt ENE to NE winds becmg
lgt and vrbl by late Tngt.

SHORT TERM: Monday...VFR/MVFR. E winds 5-10kt.

Tuesday...VFR. E winds 5-10kt.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. SE winds 5-10kt.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA. S winds 5-15kt.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Only remaining SCA tdy conditions are ovr outer
MZ051 where we xtnded the SCA there til 20z. Winds will actually
increase ovr the outer MZs this Morn before dmnshg again this
aftn, but with wvs currently only arnd 3ft ovr outer MZ050
compared t0 4-5ft ovr MZ051, we felt that there was a better chc
of more sustained SCA conditions ovr MZ051. From late Aftn
onward, winds and seas will subside across all of the waters
allowing us to drop the remaining SCA ovr MZ051. Kept close to
blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs having two
components; a short fetch pd of 3 - 5 sec and an open swell pd
of 10 - 12 sec.

SHORT TERM: Winds remaining below 25kts for the duration. Seas
will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday evening. The next
possibility for higher seas developing will be late Thursday
night with the movement of the surface low.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ051.
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&&

$$


Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...VJN/Sinko
Marine...VJN/Sinko