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399
FXUS61 KCAR 201407
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1007 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today and will be followed by
high pressure on Friday. Low pressure will approach on Saturday
and track north of our area Sunday. A cold front will cross the
area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10 am update...Adjusted PoP and thunderstorm distribution this
afternoon and this evening. Reduced risk of thunderstorms for
Aroostook County while the threat for strong thunderstorms
remains for the Bangor area and Downeast where SBCAPE generation
will be greatest by late afternoon. One new concern is the
potential for heavy rain this evening towards Hancock County as
the front slowly traverses that area.

Still looking for cooler temperatures and lower dew points to
advect southward tonight into Friday, but did bump up Friday
highs slightly with some low 80s Downeast.

Previous Discussion...
Another hazy, hot and humid day today across the CWA with
relief on the way in the form of a cold front! A cold front is
approaching the St. Lawrence River this morning in Quebec as a
597dam high begins to slowly drift SE of New York City over the
Atlantic. 500mb heights begin to slowly lower across Maine as
the front arrives from the NW. Expecting the front to arrive and
pass through Northern Maine between 9am-11am this morning and
not expecting much than perhaps an isolated shower and perhaps a
isolated t-storm if the front is slightly slower. Dew Points
will rapidly fall behind the front and based on the timing have
opted to slightly lower the highs across NE Aroostook westward
into the western St. John Valley a few degrees. Expecting highs
in the mid to upper 80s to near 90F in these spots. As the front
continues to sag south into the afternoon is where the concern
for showers and thunderstorms increases. Temperatures along and
SE of the Longfellow Mtns will be toasty again today with low to
mid 90s expected and cannot rule out a couple 97F readings
especially in the Penobscot River Valley north of Bangor in the
Central Highlands. Also, expecting low to mid 90s to extend to
the Downeast coast along the Route 1 corridor with the coolest
temps in the 70s to low 80s right along the shoreline and
islands. Dew Points in the low to mid 70s again will send Heat
Indices into the upper 90s and even areas with low 100s. Will
continue the Heat Advisory from the Central Highlands north to
NE Aroostook (although the front timing may be too quick for NE
Aroostook) and then for the DE Coast in Washington County. An
Excessive Heat Warning continues for the Greater Bangor area
east along Route 9 to Calais in interior Downeast and also
Coastal Hancock County.

Well its hazy, hot and humid with a cold front...so we are
talking thunderstorm potential. Today, over the Moosehead Region
to the Downeast coast including Bangor will feature
2000-2800j/kg of SBCAPE that builds up is rather tall and bulky
looking in modeled soundings. 500mb heights are slowly falling
and allows for ever slight cooling aloft as 500mb winds
gradually increase. Expecting the cold front to be the focus
for kick today as shear remains very weak generally less than
25kt. Modeled soundings showing PWATs increasing to 1.8-2.0
inches across the CWA which is significantly above normal. Water
loaded soundings and strong surface based instability will
develop rather robust storms today ahead of the front. Storms
will likely be single cell and become clusters today and cannot
rule out a liner line late day. Storms will grow tall today
45-50kft not out of the question. Storm cores will likely
collapse posing the greatest risk of strong gusty winds given
the water loaded soundings. DCAPE is being modeled across the
CAMs around 950-1100 with significant inverted "v" look given
the steep 9-9.5C/km Sfc-3km lapse rates. In addition, given that
yesterday we saw some small hail, cannot rule out small hail
falling with today`s storms. Outdoor activities take note with
the potential for excessive cloud to ground lightning and given
significant anvil clouds there may be some "bolts from the blue"
today as well. Lastly, given the high PWATs opted to add heavy
rain wording to the thunderstorms.

The front will reach the Downeast coast this evening and
bringing a general end to showers and thunderstorms with just
perhaps a few lingering showers along the Downeast coast given
the front slowing. Dew points tonight will be crashing into the
upper 40s across the north, low to mid 50s in the Highlands and
down to around 60F by daybreak along the Downeast coast. This
will be significant relief to the "triple H" weather we have
seen and because of that expect air temperatures to fall into
the mid to upper 50s north and low to mid 60s from the Highlands
to the coast. It will be a great night to open the windows and
air the home out.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday is looking very pleasant as high pressure in Quebec
builds into Maine. It should be a mostly sunny day with fair
weather cumulus and highs in the mid to upper 70s for most area,
but near 80F in Bangor and the upper Penobscot Valley, and 60s
for the immediate coast. Dew points will have tumbled back into
the 40s north and low to mid 50s Downeast, so the humidity
levels will be comfortable.

The high begins to move east Friday night with an increase in
clouds and perhaps a late night shower Downeast. Lows will be
seasonable and mostly in the 50s. A warm front will begin to
develop well south of the area Saturday with more clouds
and seasonable temperatures. A few showers are possible,
mainly Downeast. Temperatures will be warmest across the
far north where highs may reach 80F.  Clouds and increasing
shower chances will keep it cooler to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The afore mentioned warm front that will extend from low pressure
moving out of Ontario Saturday night and Sunday will lift north
with an increasing chance of rain developing from south to
north during the day Sunday. Sunday night into Monday looks
unsettled with rain Sunday night and showers Monday as a cold
front crosses the area as low pressure passes by well north of
the region. WPC has much of northern Maine in a slight chance
for excessive rain on day 5, but given the progressive nature of
the system the concerns for any flooding are fairly low at this
time. It looks like drier weather follows for Tuesday with
another potential system moving in from the west with increasing
shower chances by Wednesday. Temperatures overall will be a bit
above average, although highs may end up near or a bit below
average Sunday and Monday, depending on how much rain falls and
how quickly it develops during the day Sunday. Certainly no
extreme heat or humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LLWS this morning before 12z. Mainly VFR through
today. VCSH possible FVE, CAR, PQI & HUL this afternoon. W-SW
winds 5-15kt will shift NW late morning into the afternoon with
FROPA at northern terms. BGR & BHB will see VCTS and brief
cigs/vsby reduction with TS possible this afternoon. TS may
produce excessive CG Lightning, Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds and
Small Hail. SW winds 5-10kt shifting W-WNW late day 5-15kt. Late
tonight areawide expect N-NW winds 5-10kt and mainly VFR
conditions except BHB may see MVFR cigs late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Friday and Saturday: VFR with NW wind 5 to 10 knots
on Friday becoming light and variable Friday night. SW wind
around 5 knots on Saturday.

Saturday night & Sunday: VFR with conditions to likely lower to
MVFR from south to north on Sunday in developing rain. S wind 5
knots or less Saturday night, increasing to 10 to 15 knots
Sunday.

Sunday night & Monday: MVFR, but with IFR possible Sunday night
in rain. Showers likely Monday. S/SW wind 5 to 10 knots,
shifting W/NW Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Patchy to areas of fog this morning reducing vsby at
times below 2nm. Winds/seas below SCA conditions through
tonight. Brief strong winds and lightning possible this
afternoon across the coastal waters and intra-coastal waters
near shore thanks to afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Seas
2-4ft today becoming 1-3ft tonight. Winds SW today will shift W
this evening than N late tonight.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through Saturday.  The seas will likely begin to
slowly build Sunday, and it is possible that seas on the outer
waters could approach 5 ft by Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high of 96F in Caribou, Maine on Wednesday, 6/19 tied the
daily record of 96F which was set in 2020. It also tied the all-
time high temperature in Caribou which has now been observed on
four days. The first time was on June 29, 1944. The second time
was on May 22, 1977, and the third time was on June 19, 2020.
Weather records in Caribou began in 1939.

In addition, the low of 71F on 6/19 tied the record maximum low
temperature on record. The last time there was a low of 71F was on
July 25, 2018. There have now been 7 nights that this low
temperature record has been tied.

The high of 95F at Houlton tied the record for the day, which was
last set in 2020. The all-time record high in Houlton is 99F,
which was established on August 2, 1975. Weather records began in
Houlton in 1948.

The high of 97F in Millinocket broke the daily record of 95F which
was last set in 2020. It fell shy of the all-time record high of
101F set on June 18, 1907. Weather records began in 1903.

In Bangor, the high of 95F tied the record which was last set in
1995. The all-time high temperature record in Bangor is 104F, set
on August 19, 1935.  Weather records in Bangor began in 1925.

No record warm low temperatures were established or tied at
Houlton, Millinocket, and Bangor.

June 20th High Temperature Records (F):
(Forecast)

Caribou (88)            93 in 2020
Bangor (95)             95 in 2020
Millinocket (92)        96 in 2020
Houlton (91)            94 in 2020

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ002-005-006-
     011-030>032.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ015>017-029.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW/Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...MCW/Sinko/CB
Marine...MCW/Sinko/CB
Climate...