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111
FXUS61 KCAR 110324
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1124 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across the north will slowly move away to the
northeast today through Tuesday. A weak upper trough will remain
over the area Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds to
our west. High pressure will build south of the area Thursday. A
cold front will cross the region on Friday, followed by high
pressure building in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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11:20 PM Update...The sky is clear to partly cloudy with some
lower clouds beginning to move back into the area from the
northwest. Lowered temps early in the overnight period for some
of the open areas that cooled into the low 50s under a clear
sky. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

A broad vertically stacked area of low pressure continues to
churn over the Canadian Maritimes and track further east into
the Gulf of St Lawrence. More stable air has worked into the
forecast area, decreasing the threat for showers overnight. Low
temperatures will fall to around 50 across the region with
partly cloudy skies.955 PM Update:
Showers have dissipated with partly cloudy skies across most of
the area. Patchy fog is developing over areas with more
extensive breaks in cloud cover.

Previous Discussion:
For the day on Tuesday, an upper level trough will remain in the
area, which in addition to lingering low to mid level moisture
and diurnal heating, will lead to the development of convective
showers across the forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate a
skinny CAPE profile with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, so
the risk for lightning is limited but non-zero. High
temperatures will lift into the mid 70s over the forecast area
on Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Tuesday night into Wednesday the upper level trough will weaken
and turn into more of a cutoff low over the state, with ridging955 PM Update:
Showers have dissipated with partly cloudy skies across most of
the area. Patchy fog is developing over areas with more
extensive breaks in cloud cover.further to the north.
Lingering instability aloft will aid in the formation of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be
slightly drier than the previous days, so not expecting too much
accumulation. Thursday will provide a sort of a break from the
showers, at least for southern portions of the forecast area.
Overall though, we will still be under the influence of a
longwave trough, and a weak shortwave moving across the northern
part of Maine will keep at least the chance for some showers
through that region. With light flow overhead starting Tuesday
night, the chances of fog increase with all the recent rainfall.
Over the waters, marine fog is likely and should be fairly
widespread as warmer air begins to move in ahead of the next
front.955 PM Update:
Showers have dissipated with partly cloudy skies across most of
the area. Patchy fog is developing over areas with more
extensive breaks in cloud cover.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Thursday night through Friday, a cold front will cross the
state, bringing another chance for thunderstorms. The timing on
this front is slightly variable between the deterministic runs,
with GFS running a little behind the EC and Canadian. Therefore,
blended PoPs to bring precip across the area a little bit
earlier, and included a chance for thunderstorms ahead of the
front through the Central Highlands and Interior Downeast. With
a true front passing, colder air aloft will increase
instability, but more importantly, we could see bulk shear
values of 30 to 40 kts across the front. Thus, there is the
potential for these storms to be severe so Friday will be the
day to watch. Details will come into better focus as the
forecast moves into the range for the CAMS. Saturday and Sunday,
weak ridging will move in, and with a cold pool aloft, surface
temps will be a little cooler, making for a pleasant weekend. By
Monday, temperatures will be on the rise as return flow around 955 PM Update:
Showers have dissipated with partly cloudy skies across most of
the area. Patchy fog is developing over areas with more
extensive breaks in cloud cover.the high moves overhead.
Deterministic models indicate the possibility of a shortwave
bringing some showers for Monday afternoon, but confidence in
this feature is low since the forecast is too far out for
details.
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&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals...VFR outside of IFR in patchy fog late this
evening, then MVFR cigs with IFR or lower remaining possible in
patchy fog late tonight. Conditions will improve to VFR into
the day on Tues. Winds light and variable. -SHRA possible Tues
afternoon.

Downeast terminals...VFR conditions will continue tonight into
Tues, with brief IFR vis possible through early Tues morning due955 PM Update:
Showers have dissipated with partly cloudy skies across most of
the area. Patchy fog is developing over areas with more
extensive breaks in cloud cover.to patchy dense fog. Winds
light and variable. -SHRA possible Tues afternoon.


SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night-Thursday night...During the daytime, generally
VFR, except for brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger
showers in the afternoon. During the nighttime and early
mornings, MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog. Better chance
and more persistent IFR/fog along the coast. Winds less than 10
kts except during the day Thursday, when S/SW around 10 kts is
expected.

Friday...VFR early, decreasing to MVFR/IFR from N to S with
showers and storms. Timing of the front is a little uncertain,
with BGR/HUL/BHB more likely to see afternoon TS. S/SW wind
10-15 kts with higher gusts. LLWS possible.

Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR gradually becoming VFR by
Saturday morning behind the front. Gusty N winds 15 to 20 kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas less than small craft advisory
conditions will continue. Seas will approach around 4 ft on the
outermost portion of the coastal waters, and winds may briefly
surpass 20 kts across all waters in any rain showers.

SHORT TERM: Winds generally less than 10 kts and seas 2 ft or
less through Wednesday night. From Thursday into Friday, S winds
gradually increase to around 25 kts on Friday, and seas
gradually build to around 5 ft. Winds will subside below 25 kts
Friday night and remain there on Saturday. Seas gradually
subsiding to 3 feet by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
955 PM Update:
Showers have dissipated with partly cloudy skies across most of
the area. Patchy fog is developing over areas with more
extensive breaks in cloud cover.

Near Term...AStrauser/MStrauser/Bloomer
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...AStrauser/MStrauser/LF
Marine...AStrauser/MStrauser/LF