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766
FXUS62 KCHS 311959
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
359 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early next
week. A cold front could approach late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The mid-levels will consist of ridging building over the
Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure will remain
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, with its southern
periphery continuing to dominate our weather. This will yield
dry conditions and lower than normal dew points across our area.
Winds are expected to go calm this evening and overnight, away
from the beaches. Thin cirrus will also persist. The combination
of the mostly clear skies, the low dewpoints, and the calm
winds will support strong radiational cooling. We went on the
low end of the temperature guidance. Lows will range from the
mid to upper 50s far inland, to around 60 degrees closer to the
coast. At the beaches and Downtown Charleston, warmer ocean
temperatures will keep air temperatures from dropping as much as
they could. These locations should expect temperatures in the
upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Narrow short-wave ridge axis is just upstream this afternoon,
advancing through the southeast states and Ohio Valley region,
although with a pronounced short-wave circulation pressing into
the western periphery of the ridge along with associated precip
extending from the mid Mississippi River Valley down into the
Gulf. Short-wave ridge and attending surface high pressure will
build along the southeast and mid Atlantic regions heading into
Saturday and off the Atlantic coast for Sunday into Monday.

With upper level ridging and surface high pressure in control,
saturday will be another quiet and comfortable day overall. That
said, there will be weak troughing and some convection
migrating through the Gulf Coast states running up against the
ridge and drier air across the southeast states, none of which
will make it into the region. However, we will see some higher
level cloud cover spread across the region and at least some
afternoon cumulus development. Mostly sunny overall. Given
similar thermal profiles, daytime highs should run very similar
to today - essentially the middle 80s.

Sunday/Monday: Larger scale pattern will be transitioning to a
bit more progressive/zonal look across the CONUS with the
northern stream becoming more pronounced over the northern tier
of states over top a weakening southern stream.
Weakening/nebulous flow pattern will exist across the southeast
that may open the door for one or more decaying waves rippling
through the region. Meanwhile, southerly return flow of warmer,
higher dewpoint air kicks in starting Sunday and continuing into
Monday. Upshot, more typical summertime precip chances will
begin to nudge upward starting Sunday and continuing Monday,
mainly inland. Daytime temperatures also nudge upward through
the period - middle 80s Sunday and the upper 80s to around 90
Monday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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More of the same through a good portion of the week. Larger
scale southerly low level flow continues to draw warmer
temperatures and higher dewpoint air into the region through the
week while weaker smaller scale disturbances may continue to
ripple through the region. We will continue to carry isolated to
scattered precip chances through the week - the typical
summertime pattern. Meanwhile, deep upper level low may be
diving through the Great Lakes region late week helping to drive
a boundary into the mid Atlantic and southeast region and
bringing higher precip chances at that point. Still lots of time
to refine that portion of the forecast.

Temperatures continue to run in the upper 80s to around 90
through midweek and potentially the lower 90s for the late week
period. Overnight lows will span the 60s...warmer along the
coast.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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18Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: High pressure will remain
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, bringing NE
winds generally 15 kt or less. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20
nm, and 3-4 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.

Saturday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the
primary feature affecting the marine area Saturday through
Wednesday. A decent sea breeze should develop each afternoon
along the coast. Winds should remain below 15 kt and seas no
higher than 4 ft.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Adam