-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
529
FXUS61 KCLE 181052
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
652 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low over the Appalachians today will drift to the
Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday as high pressure
strengthens across the Great Lakes. The high will remain
dominant through the weekend until a cold front approaches the
region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6:30 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes.
Light radar returns are spreading westward into NW PA, but this
is falling as virga due to dry low-levels, so kept PoPs out of
the forecast this morning.

Original Discussion...

The trend toward little to no rain has continued for today as
ridging at the surface and aloft suppresses the remnant tropical
low farther south. Infrared satellite and water vapor loops this
morning show a vertically stacked, closed low centered over the
western Carolinas with associated mid and high level clouds
streaming northward into northern Ohio and NW PA, especially
east of I-77. Regional radar shows a few light showers over
southwestern PA to the east of Pittsburgh moving northwest, but
abundant dry air and subsidence will eat away at these as they
approach later this morning into the afternoon. The
aforementioned mid/upper ridging across the Great Lakes this
morning will further amplify today through Thursday in response
to a northern stream mid/upper shortwave and associated closed
low progressing through the northern Plains along the
US/Canadian border and a southern stream mid/upper closed low
swinging into southern California. This will cause the old
closed low over the western Carolinas/Appalachians today to
start to drift back toward the coast tonight and Thursday. With
this being said, any showers that can reach our CWA only have a
window of about 12 more hours to do so before the forcing starts
to exit, but as mentioned above, the dry air will likely win
out. Essentially dropped all PoPs through this afternoon except
for slight chances in Crawford County, PA. The main impact will
be a continuation of high and mid-level cloud cover today that
will filter the sunshine again, mainly over NE Ohio and NW PA.
These clouds will gradually exit to the east tonight and
Thursday as the low moves back to the coast and ridging
strengthens from the north and west.

Highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s today, coolest in
far NE Ohio and NW PA where the cloud cover will be more
persistent. Highs Thursday will return to the low 80s areawide,
with mid 80s in NW Ohio. Lows tonight will range from the mid
50s to low 60s. Higher dew points today and tonight could lead
to patchy fog in typical spots of the central highlands, NW
Ohio, and interior NE Ohio early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to remain dominant across the area
through the short term period, allowing for dry, sunny, and warm
conditions to persist. As a result, drought conditions are expected
to expand in the coming days. High temperatures will climb into the
low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will persist through at least Sunday, but the overall
pattern looks to become more active with that high finally breaking
down. Models diverge quite a bit this far out, but generally agree
that a low pressure system will track out of the Upper Plains
towards Canada and bring a cold front across the area early next
week. Exact timing remains very uncertain, but opted to introduce a
slight chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. Will have to
continue to monitor for any severe and heavy rain potential as the
very dry antecedent conditions will result in additional runoff.
Temperatures will gradually cool through the period, beginning on
Sunday in the low to mid 80s before dropping into the mid to upper
70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR will continue through the TAF cycle, except
confidence is increasing that some fog and mist will develop
tonight in typical areas of the central highlands and interior
NE Ohio, so added some MVFR visibilities at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG
after 08Z as a starting point. They could go lower. Otherwise,
just high and mid-level clouds are expected for today and
tonight.

Light E to SE winds early this morning will become E to NE at
5-10 knots this afternoon, especially near the lakeshore at
KTOL, KCLE, and KERI as the lake breeze quickly pushes through.
Winds will turn light E to SE again this evening and tonight.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Sunday. Non-VFR
possible in showers as early as Sunday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure remains dominant over Lake Erie, quiet marine
conditions are expected to persist with winds sustained at 10-15
knots and waves generally 2 feet or less. Through at least Sunday, a
similar wind pattern will develop with southeast-easterly winds
overnight shifting to northeasterly during the daytime. As a result,
waves may locally build up to 3 feet during the afternoon hours. By
early next week, winds will become sustained from the southeast at
10-15 knots as a low pressure system over the north central US moves
a cold front toward the area. No marine headlines are anticipated at
this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Campbell