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387
FXUS61 KCLE 171020
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
620 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will strengthen across the Great Lakes today
through Wednesday as the remnants of a subtropical low meander
around the central Appalachians before moving to the Mid
Atlantic coast by late Thursday. High pressure will then remain
in control Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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6:30 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes
needed. Latest infrared satellite loops show high and mid-level
clouds continuing to stream in from the SE, and this will
continue to be the trend through the morning.

Original Discussion...

Unfortunately, the forecast is trending drier, with most of the
CWA not seeing a single drop of rain tonight and Wednesday. This
will allow for gradual worsening of the drought conditions.

Starting off this morning, the remnants of the subtropical low
are centered near upstate South Carolina, and this is spreading
a high to mid-level cloud deck northward into eastern Ohio and
western PA. The forward progress of the system will slow over
the next 12 to 24 hours as ridging at the surface and aloft
strengthens to the north of the circulation across the Great
Lakes, so this will essentially trap it across the central
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic as it gradually meanders today
through Wednesday. This will cause it to evolve into a stacked
upper level cut-off low that will gradually start to drift
eastward to the Mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday night. This all
means that dry air and subsidence from the high across the
Great Lakes will largely win out and keep the showers south of
the region, so cut PoPs back to slight chance late tonight and
Wednesday for extreme eastern Ohio and western PA, generally
along a line from Mt. Vernon to just south of Meadville. Any
rain in that area will only be a trace to few hundredths of an
inch, if any occurs at all. The main impact will be greater
cloud cover today through Wednesday, especially along and east
of I-71. This will filter the sunshine and lead to slightly
cooler temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 70s/low 80s today
and mid 70s/low 80s Wednesday. The coolest readings will be in
NE Ohio and NW PA. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to
low 60s, and could see some patchy fog tonight given slightly
higher dew points expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will again dominate the short term period, leaving the
area dry, sunny, and warm for much of it. Previously, a low pressure
moving up the East Coast was slated to bring at least scattered
showers Wednesday night into early Thursday. Models now suggest the
high pressure over the northeast continuing to dominate and axing
any chances of precipitation. With a continued warm and dry trend,
will have to monitor for potential expansion of drought conditions
with the new outlook released on Thursday. Temperatures through the
period will generally be 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs
reaching into the low to mid 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight
lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern that has been extensively discussed over the last week
will unfortunately continue through the long term period. High
pressure and an upper level ridge will dominate the area, leaving no
chances of precipitation or any relief from drought through Sunday
night. Models have begun to suggest a cold front moving northeast
across the area on Monday of next week, which could present the
potential for showers as the parent low tracks north through the
central US, but with little agreement in timing or location of the
boundary, opted to cap any PoP mention on Monday to slight chance.
Highs through the period will continue to be in the low to mid 80s
with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will continue through the TAF cycle, although some mid to
high level cloud cover will stream across the region today and
tonight on the western edge of the remnants of a subtropical low
meandering toward the Appalachians. This will especially be the
case at KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI.

Light and variable winds early this morning will become more
steadily SE at 5-10 knots today, but winds will become NE again
in NW Ohio and near the lakeshore this afternoon as a lake
breeze pushes inland before switching back to SE this evening.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake Erie as a
high pressure system centered over the northeast US continues to
influence the region. Winds of 5 to 10 knots will generally remain
from the southeast this morning before briefly becoming more
northeasterly this afternoon and then returning from the southeast
tonight. This pattern will continue on Wednesday before becoming
persistent from the northeast on Thursday through the weekend. Waves
along the shoreline will be 1 to 2 feet, locally up to 3 feet during
the afternoon when onshore flow will develop. There are no marine
headlines anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Campbell