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849
FXUS63 KDDC 202228
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail across Southwest Kansas over the next
  week.

- A strong warming trend is expected through the weekend and
  early next week, with the first heat wave of the summer
  focused on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

- A heat advisory is expected to be required southeast of Dodge
  City next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Midday surface observations showed south winds increasing in
strength across SW KS, a process that will continue through the
afternoon, in response to a deepening leeside cyclone over NE
Colorado. South gusts of 30-35 mph are expected by late
afternoon and early evening, with temperatures rebounding well
into the 80s. Despite dewpoints remaining in the 60s, all zones
will be dry through tonight, with midlevel height rises and
subsidence increasing from the east. Again sunrise Friday
morning, temperatures will be in the 60s.

More of the same Friday, on the northwest periphery of the
sprawling midlevel ridge axis. Models show little if any warming
at 850 mb Friday, but with stronger SWly winds and improved
mixing and downslope, and another day to evaporate some standing
water, the warming trend is expected to continue, with 5 pm
Friday temperatures within a few degrees of 90 (near normal for
the first full day of astronomical summer). S/SWly winds will
noticeably increase Friday afternoon, with the strongest gusts,
in the 40 mph range, favoring areas NW of DDC and the preferred
US 83 corridor. Again Friday, despite continued moisture
advection and dewpoints remaining in the 60s, all grids are dry
through Friday night, with no forcing/triggering mechanisms
present.

The heat will build over the weekend and early next week, with
afternoon temperatures climbing daily. Strong midlevel high
pressure will expand westward through the period,
consolidating into a powerful hot 596 dm upper high over New
Mexico by Tuesday. GEFS/EPS ensembles continue to peak the heat
next Monday and Tuesday afternoons, when triple digit heat will
be typical. 12z GEFS probability of 2m T > 100 is 90-95% all
zones Monday, and near 90% all zones Tuesday. Latest interation
of the NBM paints Tuesday as the hottest day, with maximum
temperatures of 102-106 across SW KS. Heat advisories are
expected to be required southeast of Dodge City one or both of
these afternoons, with continued dewpoints in the 60s driving
heat indices into the 105-110 range. The core of the upper high
over New Mexico is expected to slide further westward Wednesday,
with models suggesting weakening of the anticyclone on its
eastern periphery. As such, a relaxation of the heat, and an
introduction of at least slight rain chances, is expected next
Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 526 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail though tomorrow with increasing mid
level cloudiness towards sunrise tomorrow. Winds will generally
be from a southerly direction through tomorrow, gusting to
around 30 knots tomorrow afternoon.
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&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42