Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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530 FXUS63 KDDC 242320 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- No changes to current heat advisory areas for the rest of Today and Tuesday. - Widely scattered 10-25% areal coverage thunderstorms possible through the Highway K-96 corridor of west central Kansas between about 9 pm and 3 am.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Temperatures have been a little slow to reach the high 90s and 100 degree mark in the eastern counties, however with still a little time in the day for temps to rise, and the mid 60s dew points in the area, the heat advised counties seem well justified. A surface boundary over northwest Kansas can be the focal area for development of thunderstorms, fighting a very strong mid level capping 13-14C layer. Any storms able to break a capping layer can produce strong damaging winds given the steep mid and low level lapse rates in the late evening hours to past midnight. Gusty south winds are likely to continue well through the evening, maintaining hot temperatures in the 90s through sunset. Widely scattered storms will be relegated to areas north of highway 400, with a lower chance (10-20%) of lingering farther south and east in the overnight hours. More widespread heat risk is expected on Tuesday and the heat advisory remains in place from Wakeeney to Liberal and all points east. Forecast Apparent Temperatures are the warmest in the red hills region (Coldwater - Barber County - Pratt) where the apparent temps climb to around 105-109 degrees on the NBM. Additionally, Tuesday offers better dynamics with the winds aloft increasing as a northwesterly mid level jet segment spreads into central Kansas in the early through late evening. This will allow a greater areal coverage of risk for damaging wind and large hail. For Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, both look conducive for diurnal MCS activity on the high plains. Ensembles also show signal for QPF Thursday through Friday, with little separation in the 6 hour timing bins. But, the deterministic models GEM/GFS/EC still advertise an arc of 60 deg or higher surface dew points extending from western OK into NW Kansas Wednesday night, with an MCS signal in the QPF fields through 18z Thursday, so early thunderstorms could be ongoing Wednesday morning well into the day. With the jet dynamics still in place, MCS activity looks possible again Thursday night with perhaps not as much CAPE/instability based on the surface dew points. In the longer term, the best timing for active weather with appreciable precipitation returns about late Saturday night through Sunday based on 24 hour QPF multiple run trends of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current gusty southerly winds will relax to aoa 12 kts over the next few hours. Thunderstorm activity across southwest KS is possible after 03Z, mainly at HYS and GCK, but low confidence precluded any mention in the TAFs. Winds will continue their steady decline through the overnight period, reaching light and variable by late morning/early afternoon Tuesday.
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&& .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-046- 065-066-081-090. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045- 046-064>066-077>081-086>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Springer