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869
FXUS63 KDDC 210800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- A significant rainfall event is poised to affect the forecast area
from this afternoon through Sunday morning. This system will
interact with abundant low to mid level moisture, resulting in
widespread rain and potentially heavy downpours in certain areas.

- Temperatures will struggle to reach into the 50s Sunday with lows
ranging from upper 30s to around 50 degrees Monday morning

- A weak disturbance will bring a slight chance of precipitation
  Tuesday
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

As of this morning, an upper low is positioned over Arizona and
expected to move into the Four Corners region this afternoon. This
feature is then expected to move eastward into the Central Rockies
by this evening. As the system approaches, enhanced isentropic lift
and strong 850mb warm air advection will increase cloudiness across
western Kansas and fuel the onset of rainfall across the area
starting as early as late morning but most likely this afternoon.
Precipitation becomes more widespread this evening into the
overnight hours.

Tonight, The combination of high precipitable water (PW) values and
favorable upper-level dynamics will support periods of heavy
rainfall. Model ensembles suggest PW values exceeding 1.5 inches
across much of the CWA. This is a value above the 90th percentile
based on Dodge City climatology. Rainfall totals are projected to
range between 1 to 2 inches across much of the region, with lesser
amounts across portions of west central Kansas and south central
Kansas by Sunday morning. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
indicates a less than a 60 percent chance of rainfall exceeding 1
inch of rain across south central Kansas with a 60-90% chance
elsewhere. A few areas north of south central Kansas but south of
west central Kansas may receive over 2 inches of rain by Sunday
morning. A few thunderstorms will also be possible as this system
passes creating heavy downpours in areas. If this convection trains
over the same area for an extended period of time, flooding may
become a concern.

In addition, this system is expected to help push a strong cold
front through the area. Winds will start out from a southelry
direction this morning, shifting to a northerly direction by this
evening.

By Sunday morning, rainfall will begin to taper off as drier air
moves into the mid-levels and the upper low slides eastward, though
lingering showers may still persist into the early hours of the day,
especially in southeastern portions of the region. Northerly winds
will continue throughout the day bringing in much cooler air to the
region.

Temperatures will remain cool throughout the event, with highs on
Saturday struggling to reach into the 70s to mid 80s west of Highway
283, due to extensive cloud cover and rain. Elsewhere expect highs
in the mid 80s to upper 90s.  Lows tonight will generally range from
the upper 40s along the KS/CO border to low 60s across south central
Kansas. Temperatures Sunday are not expected to rise much at all
with highs only reaching into the 50s. The only exception to this
will be across south central Kansas where temperatures as high as 70
degrees will be possible. Monday morning looks to be the coolest day
of the week with lows ranging from the upper 30s across west central
Kansas to around 50 degrees across central Kansas.

As for the remainder of the forecast, a weak shortwave may bring a
slight chance of precipitation Tuesday, otherwise expect dry
conditions. Highs look to reach into the mid 60s to low 70s Monday,
70s Tuesday and Wednesday, and mid 70s to around 80 degrees Thursday
and Friday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this morning with decreasing
ceilings this afternoon. Scattered rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue into
tonight. This will bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions
across LBL, GCK, and DDC terminals. Winds will start off from a
southerly direction early this morning, shifting to the north
from west to east as a cold front moves through the area. wind
gusts up to 20 knots will be possible this afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42