Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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419 FXUS63 KDDC 141902 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 202 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather for tonight - Only 15-20% of showers and storms near Colorado border Sunday PM - Highs chances of storms (>20%) Tuesday/Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Quiet weather is expected tonight. The lee trough will continue. As a result, southeast to southerly winds will continue through the overnight. Dewpoints are relatively high with values in the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. As such, lows tonight will be mild with values in the upper 50s west to mainly 60s for much of the FA central and east. For Sunday, the lee trough will diurnally deepen. SE to S winds will become breezy at times with speeds around 20 mph with higher gusts. Highs should peak in the 89F to 94F range. The hottest highs are expected across far southwest Kansas, where the air will be slightly drier and more likely to get hotter. The lee trough will continue Sunday afternoon and evening across eastern Colorado. There might be some showers or weak storms that may develop along this trof axis in the afternoon. There looks to be a minor upper level wave with some cooler mid level temperatures to help spark off this activity as well. As such, have some low pops (15-20%) tomorrow evening across the Colorado border. As this mid level baroclinic zone moves through, there might be some showers or weak storms Monday morning across central Kansas. Otherwise, much of the FA should remain dry outside of these two highlighted areas. By Monday and Tuesday, a large UL low will begin to carve out across the western United States. Moisture will continue to prevail with 60F+ dewpoints continuing across western Kansas. The combination of the approaching wave and the low level moisture will lead to storm chances with the highest pops Tuesday. This deterministic solutions do match up with probabilistic terms from the EPS with 30 to 60% chance of QPF >0.10" Tuesday. Another source or probabilistic messaging comes from the grand ensemble, which shows 50 to 80% chance of QPF >0.10" Tuesday. As such, the higher pops are warranted since both deterministic and probabilistic sources show the increasing chances of storms across the FA for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR expected through TAF pd. S/SE winds 15-20 kt will decrease around 10 kt towards dusk. Winds will increase once again to 15-20 kt tomorrow with continued lee troughing. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden