-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
515
FXUS63 KDLH 070014
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
714 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will end this evening, winds up to 20 mph
  could continue tonight.

- Dry and windy conditions for Friday.

- Active weather continues for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today and Tonight:

Northwesterly flow is causing average wind speeds of around 15
mph with gusts of 25-30 mph across the Northland this afternoon.
The system that brought storms yesterday has since moved east,
bringing faster synoptic-scale winds due to tightening pressure
gradients being mixed down to the surface. Recent and current
precipitation has caused high rivers to take on more, with the
Nemadji and Kettle rivers at high levels. Flow is decreasing for
numerous basins like the Knife, St. Louis, Nemadji, and St.
Croix rivers with no major increases expected for today and
tomorrow. There are spotty rain showers happening today, with
more possible overnight. Severe possibilities are very minimal
as CAPE values wont exceed far past 500 J/kg and dewpoints are
in the high 40s. Precipitation amounts will not exceed a few
tenths of an inch at most.

Tomorrow:

The winds are expected to slightly decrease tomorrow as the low
continues to evacuate eastward, with northwesterly/westerly
winds averaging in the 10-15 mph range, with some 20-30 mph
gusts still possible. With the continued northwest flow aloft, a
small shortwave ridge will attempt to build, however a
disturbance will quickly arrive late Friday afternoon and
evening with some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Overnight Friday, a moisture injection from the south and
possibly the Pacific northwest will bring increases in
precipitable water, increasing chances for showers and storms
overnight Friday. There is very little chance for severe weather
with dewpoints in the 40s and very low CAPE.

This Weekend into Next Week:

The departing low will cause similar conditions as today on
Saturday. Diurnal showers under cyclonic flow will lead to
scattered rain showers throughout the Northland. Global models
are in disagreement of whether this will linger for Sunday or
move off to the east. Oscillating wet and dry days will
continue into next week. West to northwest flow with embedded
shortwaves will lead to multiple chances for precipitation
throughout the weekend. By next week, models already start to
diverge on positions of upper troughs and ridges. So timing for
precipitation versus dry conditions are very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 714 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Expect predominately broken VFR ceilings through the evening
into early tonight, though there is a 20-40% chance for broken
MVFR ceilings at KINL and KHIB from 03-07Z that may need some
amendments if chances trend higher. Highest confidence in MVFR
ceilings will be in the tip of the MN Arrowhead and across
parts of north-central WI. Isolated showers/sprinkles diminish
after this evening, as well. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. Some scattered diurnal cumulus
develop in the Arrowhead and NW WI again late morning through
afternoon and dry conditions. Increasing mid to high clouds late
in the period and Friday evening as scattered rain chances
return Friday evening into Saturday.

WNW winds remain around 10 knots for most through tonight, with
some occasional gusts to 20-25 knots mixing down at times. More
consistent wind gusts to 20-25 knots pick back up again daytime
Friday and turn lighter after the end of the current TAF period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered showers this afternoon will continue into this
evening. This departing low pressure is causing the winds
hazardous to small craft to linger. These winds are expected to
decrease slightly overnight before increasing once again for
Friday. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
in the morning. Friday will be dry, before another system brings
light showers to western Lake Superior. The system will depart on
Saturday and will lead to gusty conditions, but only up to 20
kts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML