-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
661
FXUS63 KEAX 242317
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot and humid conditions continue. Daytime heat
  index values around 105-115 expected this afternoon. Overnight
  lows in the upper 70s to near 80 bring little relief from the
  heat. Heat index values Tuesday reside around 100-105.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight Tonight into
  Tuesday; more likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A few
  strong to severe storms are possible with heavy rainfall,
  damaging winds, and hail being the primary hazards. Some pulse
  non-severe storms are possible during the afternoon hours
  Tuesday.

- Runoff from recent rainfall across the northern US is flowing
  into the MO River. River levels are expected to rise
  throughout the week. Some areas may see minor to moderate
  flooding.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Summer officially started on June 20th and quickly established
itself across the region. Heat and humidity have taken firm hold
thanks to two high pressure areas stalled across the US working in
tandem to create a hot, muggy, and challenging weather pattern. An
H500 low situated over the southwest US orients upper level flow
generally northwesterly across the region. At the H850 level another
high sits across the Gulf coast which maintains the southerly flow
to warm air and humidity into the region. Model guidance so far has
underperformed observations with multiple places reaching triple
digit air temperatures. Heat index values have ascended to 105-115F.
Slightly more concerning is the overnight lows only bottoming out in
the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. This brings little relief from the
heat, especially for vulnerable populations. Please check in on
family and neighbors and ensure their well being. Heat index values
above 100F continue Tuesday.

Shortwave troughs rim riding around both ridges eject small areas of
cyclonic vorticity. This combined with a broad warm air mass creates
and environment possible for pulse air mass thunderstorms during the
afternoon. So far satellite imagery has not shown much cloud
development across the region lessing chances for afternoon pulse
convection. An upper level shortwave traverse northern MO bringing
chances for showers and storms overnight tonight into Tuesday. Broad
scale saturating and lift may bring isolated showers across the
region by sunrise Tuesday.

The environment becomes a little more unstable Tuesday afternoon
becoming a little more conducive for pulse storm development;
however, it has been challenging for models to capture where storms
might form. CAMs have been suggesting a small area of storms across
NE MO spreading southward into central MO during the late afternoon
and evening. The precedes a larger, more robust complex of
thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the product
of an upper level trough which slides across the upper Midwest. This
sets up a strong area of low level convergence across southern IA
and northern MO. Thunderstorms are expected to form along this
boundary quickly assembling into a complex which moves southward
through the night. Strong to severe storms are possible within both
waves with heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail being the
primary concerns. This complex of storms ushers in a cooler air mass
which lowers temperatures back down to the upper and mid 80s
Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, bringing a respite from the
heat. Extended guidance shows heat building back in later in the
week with triple digit heat index values anticipated toward the end
of the week. The upper level pattern also looks to become a bit more
zonal opening up to more leeward cyclones. This ebbs and flows
warming temperatures with cooling rains. Guidance has remained
active and variable so many uncertainties remain with the longer
term pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions expected to persist across all TAF sites. Some
diurnal cu is currently inching towards KIXD, so putting the
introduction of those cu at KIXD, KMCI, and KMKC around 1z. Some
signature of light rain showers tomorrow morning around 12z,
but electing to keep out of TAFs for now due to low confidence
(<30%). Gusts will calm going into the evening, before ramping
back up tomorrow afternoon with anticipated mixing and diurnal
cu cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of
rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling
into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the
next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching
minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly
affected by updated information and additional rainfall around
the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>006-011>015-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...SPG/Blair
HYDROLOGY...Pesel