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623
FXUS63 KEAX 101129
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather expected today.

- A warmup begins tomorrow, with highs into the mid 90s and heat
  indices in the 100 to 105 range for some locations by
  Thursday afternoon.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday evening, primarily for northern
  Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The current synoptic weather pattern is defined by a closed mid
level low over New Brunswick with troughing over the eastern
Midwest and into the northeastern CONUS with mid level ridging
over much of the west and west-central CONUS. Our region remains
between these two features under northwesterly flow aloft with a
500 mb jet extending from western Iowa through northeastern
Missouri and eastward along the base of the trough into
Appalachia. At the surface, generally high pressure remains in
place with current conditions characterized by temperatures in
the upper 50s to lower 60s under clear skies with nearly calm
winds. North northwest flow aloft continues into this afternoon,
although mid level ridging will begin to nudge its way in from
the west. This will result in high temperatures in the lower 80s
across far eastern Kansas with cooler temperatures as your
progress east northeastward (mid 70 highs over NE MO).

By tomorrow afternoon, troughing slides further to the east with
mid level ridging building from the west in association with a
592 dam high at 500 mb centered over northwestern Mexico.
This will send low level flow back to south southwesterly, and
help usher in modest moisture return along with higher afternoon
temperatures (highs in the mid 80s). A shortwave trough moving
across the Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon will send a weak cold
front toward northern Missouri, and could develop a few isolated
showers over NW Missouri, but otherwise dry conditions should
prevail.

By Wednesday, the mid level high expands and strengthens over NW
Mexico and the Desert Southwest, with mid level heights
increasing over our region. This should send afternoon highs
into the lower to even mid 90s for Wed afternoon. Furthermore,
moisture return should continue, with dewpoints reaching the low
to mid 60s, making it feel a bit more humid. The ridge
strengthens even further on Thursday, with even higher mid level
heights overspreading the region. Highs are currently projected
to reach the mid 90s for most locations with upper 90s possible
over NE Kansas and NW Missouri. With dewpoints in the upper 60s
to nearly 70 degrees, afternoon heat indices may reach 100-105
degrees for some locations. A trough is progged to move out
of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region on Thursday,
sending a cold front southward toward the region. With a hot and
moist airmass, there will be high instability in place across
the area. And with 30 to 40 knots of WNW flow at 500 mb moving
in late Thursday afternoon, a few strong to severe storms may be
possible, primarily over northern Missouri.

Well above normal temperatures should continue into next
weekend with slight chances for showers and storms on Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds remain generally light out of the north shifting to
southerly by the evening hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Pesel