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459
FXUS63 KEAX 171951
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Isolated thunderstorms possible across areas east of I-49/I-35
  before sunset. Storms may have frequent lightning and gusty
  winds.

- Heat and humidity continue with heat index values hovering
  around 100F for the next several days.Low temperatures around
  70-75 degrees bringing limited relief from the heat to
  vulnerable populations.

- Winds today and tomorrow are expected to gust around 25-30 MPH and
  30-35 MPH respectively.

- Slight chances for precipitation Tuesday night through
  Wednesday mainly across far NW MO and NE KS.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A small area of upper level divergence and a weak boundary with
isentropic ascent has developed along the southeast portion of the
CWA stretching from around Moberly SW through Clinton. Isolated pop-
up thunderstorms are developing; however, these are not long lasting
storms and are not expected to become strong or severe. Lightning
and gusty winds are the most likely hazards. Chances for these pulse
storms continue through sunset.

Otherwise, heat and humidity remain the theme of the week as high
temperatures continue above 90 degrees with heat indices hovering
around 100F. A strong high pressure parked over the eastern CONUS
funnels warm and moist air across the central CONUS. This keeps high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s while also pumping more moisture
thus humidity into the region. Fortunately, we do not reside in the
axis of the warm air and moisture advection keep things slightly
tempered. Dew points look to stay at or below 70 degree which keeps
heat indices around 100F instead of multiple days above.
Nonetheless, heat stress is still a concern merely due to the
duration of the hot conditions as well as the elevated overnight
lows (around 70-75 degrees) which may not bring as much relief as
desired from daytime heat to vulnerable populations. Please practice
heat safety if working outside and remember to stay hydrated and
check in on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

While we are expecting mostly hot and humid conditions with little
chances for precipitation, that does not mean the weather pattern
isn`t active. A shortwave trough passing to the NW of the area is
creating a little bit of compression in the pressure gradient along
the western side of the east CONUS high which when coupled with
diurnal mixing accelerates wind gusts around 25-35 MPH today.
Unfortunately, this will not serve as a refreshing breeze, but
rather more of a sauna with a fan. Gusty winds continue Tuesday with
further compression of the pressure gradient plus diurnal mixing
pushes gusts around 30-35 MPH. The shortwave will advance eastward
Tuesday evening dropping a cold front across NW MO bringing some
chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Optimistic guidance has this boundary advancing
far enough eastward to bring precipitation to the KC metro; however,
it likely will not advance that far keeping precipitation chances
concentrated across far NW MO and NE KS. Of course, this front is
not likely to bring a wholesale pattern change and heat with humidity
look to continue.

The extended forecast of the upper level pattern remains fairly
consistent with the stout high remaining over the eastern CONUS and
a trough persisting to the west. This continues the flow of warm
moist air into the region. Highs remain in the 90s through the
period with heat indices hovering in the upper 90s to around 100F.
While the trough to the west does eject shortwaves into the pattern
catalyzing some showers and thunderstorms across the central Plains,
the eastward high lifts these storms to the north and west of the
region. Long range guidance suggests that the eastern CONUS high may
break down towards the weekend opening up western flow bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as well as relatively cooler
conditions starting Sunday and Monday of next week.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Scattered daytime cloud
decks can be observed over the TAF sites, and will remain above VFR
ceiling thresholds. According to model guidance, cloud coverage is
expected to dissipate around 22-23Z this afternoon, starting at STJ.
Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 15-20 knots. Gusts could
be over 25 knots in some instances during daylight hours. Winds are
expected to relax a tad and may meander more southwesterly after
midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Hayes