-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
920
FXUS63 KEAX 182130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
430 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Hot and humid weather continues into next week.

- Thunderstorms expected in NW MO overnight Tuesday into
  Wednesday, heightening flash flood concerns.

- Rain possible again on Sunday (~40%), but predominantly dry
  next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As has been the case for the past several days, hot and humid
weather will continue to dominate the forecast. Highs will
remain in the low/mid 90s, while lows will only drop to around
70. Diurnal cumulus is present across the area going into the
afternoon, but shower/storm activity is not expected to occur
with a lack of forcing at the lower levels to invigorate
convective activity before sunset. Gusty southerly winds will
diminish going into the evening.

A surface low in the northern Great Plains and its associated
cold front will bring a line of storms to NW MO overnight. These
storms have already been observed on satellite/radar firing
along the cold front. This cold front is expected to move into
NW MO by Wednesday morning. Some CAMs are suggesting that the
front will stall over NW MO. With this solution, more
concentrated rainfall over NW MO may increase concerns for
flash flooding. The HRRR, on the other hand, suggests a more
transient frontal passage protruding further east into MO,
which may limit the residency of rainfall in NW MO. In turn,
this would expand coverage of showers and storms, minimizing
flash flood concerns for NW MO. Current analysis between
guidance and reality suggests that the HRRR has a better handle
of the current storm activity out west, so more confidence can
be placed in the timing of the HRRR forecast for storms later.
However, as the event evolves, more concise evaluation can be
given to intensity and location. All guidance suggests that
there may be an isolated strong to severe storm or two
overnight into early Wednesday morning, with primary threats
being high winds and hail. Going into Wednesday afternoon, the
presence of upper level divergence and embedded shortwaves
could encourage additional rain showers across central MO.

Following the cold front and associated rain, highs for
Wednesday will fall slightly, remaining around the mid to upper
70s for far NW MO while areas towards central Missouri will
continue to see highs hovering around 90. Unfortunately, though,
this "reprieve" will not last into the following days. A ridge
will build into the central CONUS on Thursday, bringing with it
continued heat and humidity into Saturday. A shortwave trough
ejecting from the west will bring back the chance for
precipitation on Sunday (~40%), but higher probabilities remain
towards the northeast. After Sunday, a ridge will build back
into the area and keep conditions dry for the remainder of the
forecast period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Diurnal cumulus with VFR ceilings remain throughout the rest of
today. Southerly wind gusts persist around 30 kts. Overnight,
winds will dissipate to around 5-10 kts for the rest of the TAF
period. Showers and thunderstorms moving into NW MO into
Wednesday morning will deteriorate weather conditions at KSTJ.
However, for remaining TAF sites, electing to keep rain out of
the forecast until there is greater certainty with intensity and
timing of any precipitation.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG/Pesel
AVIATION...SPG/Pesel