-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
172
FXUS63 KEAX 181717
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions expected the next several days with
  highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the week

- Shower and thunderstorm activity expected Tuesday night into
  Wednesday for northern portions of the forecast area. Amounts
  up to 2 inches could be possible in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Little has changed in the forecast with hot and humid conditions
still expected the next several days. Stout ridging along with
surface high pressure is situated over the eastern US with troughing
over the west. We remain caught in the middle with ample warm air
advection and southerly flow thanks to the ridge to our west.
Temperatures are expected to rise to the low to mid 90s for another
day. Heat indices will top out in the mid to upper 90s. Like Monday,
winds will be breezy again with gusts up to 30 mph possible this
afternoon.

By the afternoon/evening, our attention will turn to a shortwave
trough shifting to the northeast through the northern High Plains.
This will send a frontal boundary toward our area along with
increasing shower and thunderstorm potential. Storm will develop
across Nebraska and Iowa and shift southeast into the evening,
eventually making it into far northern Missouri overnight. For the
most part, storms are expected to decrease in intensity as they move
toward our area, so widespread strong storms are not expected with
this system. As far as rainfall amounts, our far northwest will see
highest amounts with potential for as high as 2.5 inches. Shower and
thunderstorm activity may linger into Wednesday afternoon but will
gradually decrease over time. As the front moves through, highs will
vary greatly across the forecast area Wednesday with northwestern MO
only in the low to mid 90s with the remainder of the area still near
90 degrees.

For the rest of the week mainly dry conditions are currently
expected, however nearby shortwaves will decrease certainty. As far
as temperatures go, highs on Thursday will bounce right back to the
the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures are expected to be on a
warming trend for the later half of the week into the weekend with
mid 90s expected for Friday and Saturday. A better chance for
rainfall looks to hold off until Saturday night as a shortwave
slides north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Diurnal cumulus with VFR ceilings remain throughout the rest of
today. Southerly wind gusts persist around 30 kts. Overnight,
winds will dissipate to around 5-10 kts for the rest of the TAF
period. Showers and thunderstorms moving into NW MO into
Wednesday morning will deteriorate weather conditions at KSTJ.
However, for remaining TAF sites, electing to keep rain out of
the forecast until there is greater certainty with intensity and
timing of any precipitation.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...SPG/BP