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475
FXUS63 KEAX 240504
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous heat and humidity expected this week. A heat
  advisory has been issued for Monday with indices expected to
  exceed 105 degrees.

- Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through
  early Wednesday. A few storms may be strong to severe with
  damaging winds being the primary hazard.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

In the upper levels, there is a fairly zonal flow over the region
with winds out of the west. Broad ridging resides over the Great
Plains region and is expected to slowly continue moving east. At the
surface, high pressure has developed to our west over the NE/KS
border. As a result, winds have shifted to the north and prevented
WAA from the Gulf. This will keep our high temperatures to the low
90s for today.

Tomorrow, the upper level ridge is expected to move over the area.
An upper level trough develops over western Canada and extends
down into the Great Plains region. At the surface, winds shift
to the south out ahead of the surface low that develops to our
west. This will allow us to advect warm, moist air from the Gulf
resulting in an increase in heat index values. Heat indices are
expected to get as high as 108 degrees for our area.
Approximately two-thirds of our region will have heat indices
that are at or above 105 degrees. This has resulted in us
issuing a heat advisory for 17Z Monday to 01Z Tuesday. Overnight
temperatures into Tuesday look to hover around 80 degrees which
will make for a hot and humid morning. Through Tuesday,
southerly winds are expected to persist as the area enters the
warm sector of the frontal system associated with the surface
low to the west. This is expected to keep our heat indices high.
This may result in a second day of a heat advisory, but at this
time we are waiting for more model runs to increase confidence.

Tuesday evening, the aforementioned surface low is expected to push
through northern MO and then dip southwesterly along the MO/IL
border. As the cold frontal boundary moves in from the north,
showers and storms are expected to develop along the boundary. Even
though MUCAPE values are around 2,000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates
stay around 6.5 degrees which may hinder hail growth. Bulk shear
values ranging from 30-40 knots suggest damaging winds will be the
primary concern with hail also being a possible threat.

Winds will shift to the north Wednesday morning, after the passage
of the front, which will help to provide some relief from the heat
advisory level conditions. Wednesday high temperatures are expected
to remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chances for heat advisory-
level conditions returns during the second half of the week on
Friday as winds shift to south again ahead of another surface cold
front. There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms along the
boundary Friday night into Saturday, however we will continue to
monitor this system and seek future model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities remain during the TAF period.
Expecting a wind shift out of the southwest by the morning
tomorrow, with the introduction of some higher level clouds
towards the far northeast. As such, electing to keep KIXD in SKC
for the morning. Gusty winds up to 20 kts expected by the
afternoon with mixing, but should calm going into the evening.
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&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>006-011>015-020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...SPG/Krull