Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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670 FXUS63 KEAX 232313 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 613 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous heat and humidity expected this week. A heat advisory has been issued for Monday with indices expected to exceed 105 degrees. - Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through early Wednesday. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds being the primary hazard. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 In the upper levels, there is a fairly zonal flow over the region with winds out of the west. Broad ridging resides over the Great Plains region and is expected to slowly continue moving east. At the surface, high pressure has developed to our west over the NE/KS border. As a result, winds have shifted to the north and prevented WAA from the Gulf. This will keep our high temperatures to the low 90s for today. Tomorrow, the upper level ridge is expected to move over the area. An upper level trough develops over western Canada and extends down into the Great Plains region. At the surface, winds shift to the south out ahead of the surface low that develops to our west. This will allow us to advect warm, moist air from the Gulf resulting in an increase in heat index values. Heat indices are expected to get as high as 108 degrees for our area. Approximately two-thirds of our region will have heat indices that are at or above 105 degrees. This has resulted in us issuing a heat advisory for 17Z Monday to 01Z Tuesday. Overnight temperatures into Tuesday look to hover around 80 degrees which will make for a hot and humid morning. Through Tuesday, southerly winds are expected to persist as the area enters the warm sector of the frontal system associated with the surface low to the west. This is expected to keep our heat indices high. This may result in a second day of a heat advisory, but at this time we are waiting for more model runs to increase confidence. Tuesday evening, the aforementioned surface low is expected to push through northern MO and then dip southwesterly along the MO/IL border. As the cold frontal boundary moves in from the north, showers and storms are expected to develop along the boundary. Even though MUCAPE values are around 2,000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates stay around 6.5 degrees which may hinder hail growth. Bulk shear values ranging from 30-40 knots suggest damaging winds will be the primary concern with hail also being a possible threat. Winds will shift to the north Wednesday morning, after the passage of the front, which will help to provide some relief from the heat advisory level conditions. Wednesday high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chances for heat advisory- level conditions returns during the second half of the week on Friday as winds shift to south again ahead of another surface cold front. There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms along the boundary Friday night into Saturday, however we will continue to monitor this system and seek future model guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR ceilings and visibilities expected through the TAF period at all sites. Looking forward to a shift of winds towards the southwest starting tomorrow morning. Winds expected to ramp up in intensity, with afternoon mixing prompting the inclusion of gusts around 20 knots by 18z.
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&& .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...SPG/Blair