Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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141 FXUS63 KEAX 231131 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 631 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous Heat and Humidity This Week - Heat Advisory Monday Afternoon - Shower/Storm Chances Tuesday and Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today Through Tuesday Morning: Short-wave trough and associated surface cyclone with trailing cold front have passed through the forecast area during the early morning hours of Sunday. A few light sprinkles are still ongoing in the Howard and Cooper County area but will be ending as the front continues to progress toward the southeast. This afternoon subtle H5 heights gradually rise in the AVA regime and promote weak subsidence that should result in surface pressure rises. This will help break apart lingering cloud cover by this afternoon and promote anticyclone development at the surface across the area. Mid-level ridge axis sets up over the High Plains but expecting a few short- wave perturbations to navigate their way through the flow. This will create surface pressure falls over the Front Range and High Plains, and as the surface anticyclone over the lower Missouri River Valley shifts eastward, should provide south to southwesterly low-level flow. For Sunday afternoon, expecting temperatures in the lower to mid 90s across the area as WAA begins to ramp back up accompanied by strong insolation through the afternoon. The weak northerly winds through the morning should prevent some heating through the day. Monday though, WAA takes off along with stronger moisture transport that will result in hazardous heat index values across two-thirds of our forecast area. Surface temperatures are setting up to be in the upper 90s across much of eastern Kansas into Central Missouri, with strong signal in ensemble probabilities for upper 90s. This will also bring in dewpoints in the lower 70s to much of the area, which will yield heat index values between 104F and 107F. Therefore, have issued a heat advisory for much of the area Monday afternoon. For right now, have dry conditions in there as there will not be much in the way of forcing but will need to monitor trends, as there could be potential for the boundary layer to reach its convective temperature and allow a few airmass showers/storms to develop. But without any substantial mid to upper-level flow, should not last for an overly long period of time. Heading into Monday night and Tuesday, not much is expected in the way of temperature relief. H5 height rises continue through the overnight hours with strong WAA, resulting in lows temperatures in the upper 70s to possibly lower 80s. Tuesday Afternoon and Beyond: Latest GFS model guidance indicates ridging over the southern CONUS Tuesday morning. Upper-level troughing is observed simultaneously in central Canada, with another system offshore the Pacific northwest coast. Additionally, warm air advection due to the southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will keep highs in the lower 90s in the afternoon hours on Tuesday. The upper-level low in Canada will increase atmospheric instability and enhance precipitation chances throughout the day on Tuesday. Moving forward in time, GFS guidance places this upper-level high pressure center in extreme northeastern New Mexico at 12Z Wednesday morning. This ridge retrogrades back west on Wednesday as a consequence of interacting with the short-wave trough centered in central Canada as it continues to progress east, digging into Great Lakes region in central/eastern CONUS. As the system begins to impact upper-level conditions on the eastern seaboard, the frontal passage will provide temporary relief with temperatures on Thursday peaking in the mid 80s in our area. Chances for showers and storms return Thursday afternoon and continue into the weekend, as the trough previously located in the pacific northwest traverses east across the mountainous west. After frontal passage on Saturday morning, summertime ridging builds back in over the southern/western United States, surface winds returning afternoon highs to the upper 80s lower 90s on Saturday and Sunday despite predominantly northerly surface and northwesterly H5 winds. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Mostly clear skies oversee VFR conditions through the period. Winds are expected to be light and variable throughout the day on Sunday. Predominantly northerly winds will initially be observed at the TAF sites, followed by easterly and southerly winds shifts in the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hayes/Krull AVIATION...Hayes