-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
421
FXUS64 KEPZ 221919
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
119 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

East flow brings cooler weather on Monday. Forecast is trending
drier for this week as temperatures slowly warm back to above
normal by next weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Southwest flow aloft today behind an exiting upper low over the
Central Plains. Temperatures are right near normal for late
September with lowland highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

A weak backdoor cold front will arrive tonight, with winds
shifting to the east at El Paso shortly after sunset and the rest
of southern New Mexico early Monday morning. NBM 75th percentile
winds show a good chance for gusty conditions overnight across
west El Paso and the Franklin/Organ Mountain west slopes. While
this doesn`t look to be a very strong cold front, gusts up to 40
mph are possible right along the mountain slopes through Monday
morning.

Monday will be our coolest day of the week, though only a few
degrees cooler than today. Modest moisture return with the
aforementioned cold front. A few rain showers will be possible
Monday night into Tuesday along the lower Rio Grande Valley in
Hudspeth and southward toward Big Bend, otherwise the rest of the
area will remain dry.

Midweek forecast has trended much drier with much subsequent
package. GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions now in much better
agreement keeping a break off polar jet streak off to our east
and the El Paso region more consistently under the influence of a
Southwest US ridge. Rain chances continue to fall quite a bit,
with now only very slight chances for eastern zones on Tuesday.
Better confidence that most areas will remain dry this week as
temperatures warm day-to-day through Friday. Lowland highs will be
back in the lower-to-mid 90s by next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VMC through forecast period. Surface winds quite light and
variable AOB 06 knots today. FROPA after sunset tonight, first at
KELP around 02Z and then KDMN by 05Z. East flow 050-080 at 06-12
knots, with higher gusts along mountain west slopes overnight.
Skies mostly SKC today, with FEW-SCT040 developing Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Backdoor cold front moves in tonight, with cooler temperatures and
winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph on Monday. Fair to Good
smoke ventilation with transport to the northwest. Humidity will
be higher on Monday (Min RH 25-40%), with low fire danger.

Winds remaining light this week with high pressure building into
the Southern Rockies. Temperatures slightly above normal for late
September with no notable precipitation chances.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  62  86  66  91 /   0  20  10  10
Sierra Blanca            57  76  58  83 /  10  40  30  30
Las Cruces               57  85  61  89 /   0  10  10  10
Alamogordo               54  84  58  88 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               39  63  43  65 /   0  20  10  20
Truth or Consequences    54  84  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              51  79  54  83 /   0  10   0  10
Deming                   55  85  58  89 /   0  10  10   0
Lordsburg                55  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  83  66  89 /   0  20  10  10
Dell City                56  82  58  89 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             60  84  62  90 /  10  40  30  30
Loma Linda               54  77  58  82 /   0  20  10  10
Fabens                   60  83  63  89 /   0  30  20  10
Santa Teresa             58  82  62  87 /   0  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           58  84  63  88 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            54  85  58  88 /   0  10  10  10
Hatch                    54  86  58  90 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus                 57  83  61  88 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande                54  82  58  86 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                  42  75  48  76 /  10  20  10  20
Mescalero                43  74  46  76 /   0  10  10  20
Timberon                 42  72  46  74 /   0  20  10  20
Winston                  43  77  47  80 /   0  10   0  10
Hillsboro                50  83  54  86 /   0  10  10  10
Spaceport                50  84  56  87 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             45  79  48  83 /   0  10   0  10
Hurley                   49  81  53  85 /   0  10  10  10
Cliff                    47  88  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               51  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  80  56  84 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                   54  85  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  82  56  87 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           53  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt