-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
601
FXUS64 KEPZ 212045
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
245 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 111 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Fall starts on Sunday morning and a little cooler air begins to
move into the region. High temperatures on Sunday will be near
seasonal averages, while high temperatures on Monday may be a
degree or two below average. High temperatures through the end of
the week will be near average, with a little above average high
temperatures for next weekend. We will be dry for Sunday and
Monday, then a chance for rain returns to the forecast for Tuesday
and Wednesday, mainly east of the Rio Grande, then we dry back
out for the end of the week into next weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 111 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Astronomical Fall begins at 6:44 AM MDT Sunday morning and right
on time some cooler air will begin to filter into the region.
High temperatures Sunday afternoon we be near seasonal averages
as a back door front looks to push across the area on Sunday. We
will also have lots of dry air in place, so we will stay dry with
mostly clear skies. For Monday, we will see moisture begin to slip
back into the region from the east. Most of the area will stay
dry, but we could see some showers in eastern Otero and Hudspeth
Counties. High temperature on Monday will run a couple of degrees
below average.

On Tuesday an upper level ridge will begin to push into the
region from the west. The upper level ridge will help warm our
temperatures a few degrees and it will limit any slight chances
for rain to locations east of the Rio Grande. The latest models
are trending drier for Wednesday and Thursday. Right now there are
still some slight chance rain chances in the forecast, but if
drier trend continues, we will need to trim or remove those rain
chances. High temperatures for the middle of next week will run
near seasonal averages. Upper level high pressure looks to control
our weather for Friday and into next weekend, which will keep us
dry with high temperatures running a few degrees above average.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

An approaching upper level storm system will bring some breezy to
windy afternoon conditions to the region. KTCS will have the
strongest winds of 20022G31KT, while we will see lower winds for
KDMN and KLRU. The lowest winds, but still breezy, will be at
KELP; 25016G23KT. The gusty winds will drop off around or a little
after sunset and stay generally light through the overnight hours.
Our ceilings will stay mostly unlimited this afternoon, tonight
and through the day on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 111 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

We will have low fire weather concerns over the next several days.
Our gusty winds this afternoon will drop off around sunset. The
winds will come around to the east as a back door front pushes
across the region. Winds may be a little gusty on the west slopes
of area mountains Sunday afternoon. The generally light east or
southeast winds will continue through the end of the coming week.
Min RH`s for Sunday will be in the teens in the lowlands and above
20% in area mountains. For the rest of next week, our min RH`s
will be at or above 20% each day. Vent rates will range from fair
to good over the next couple of days.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  64  88  63  85 /   0   0  10  20
Sierra Blanca            60  84  56  76 /  10   0  10  50
Las Cruces               56  86  57  84 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               54  85  53  84 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               41  62  39  63 /   0  10   0  20
Truth or Consequences    54  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              48  78  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   52  85  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                51  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  86  63  82 /   0   0  10  20
Dell City                59  86  56  81 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Hancock             61  91  61  84 /   0   0  10  50
Loma Linda               58  81  54  76 /   0   0   0  30
Fabens                   60  88  61  83 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Teresa             57  85  59  81 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ           60  85  58  83 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range            53  84  54  84 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    53  86  53  86 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 56  85  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                55  83  55  81 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                  44  69  42  75 /   0  10  10  20
Mescalero                44  73  42  73 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 44  71  42  70 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                  42  74  43  77 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                50  81  51  83 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                51  83  50  84 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             42  78  45  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   47  80  50  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    44  86  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  50  80  51  80 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   52  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  83  54  83 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           52  84  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice