-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
509
FXUS64 KEPZ 200521
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1121 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Very warm temperatures continue through tomorrow afternoon.
Afternoons will be breezy for tomorrow and Saturday. Low rain
chances return to the picture Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning and again Monday. The rest of the week looks potentially
unsettled with highs closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Our UL pattern is looking more and more like Fall even though the
weather across the Borderland feels much more like summer. UL
Ridge is centered over the Mexican State of Coahuila with a
closed low off the CA coast. This pattern places us in very warm,
dry southwest flow. This afternoon and evening will be quiet as a
result though temperatures should be mild by morning.

The UL low off the CA coast will migrate eastward throughout the
day on Friday while the subtropical high elongates into Texas.
This pattern will allow moisture to return to much of the
Borderland though how far west remains to be seen. Subtle UA
energy coming up from Mexico as well as PDVA from the low will
foster shower and storm chances wherever moisture can become
established. Latest run of the NBM draws slight chances basically
the Rio Grande Valley eastward starting late tomorrow lasting into
Saturday morning with the approach of the UL trough axis. We will
have plenty of shear, but CAPE looks lacking. Should we wind up
with richer moisture marginally severe storms would be possible,
but right now, it appears instability will be too weak. Breezy
winds will also accompany the passage of the UL low, especially
west of the Rio Grande.

Through the weekend, main UL low deposits a persistent trough
across the Desert SW with us largely in the base of it.
Winds will be breezy on Saturday with a modest decrease in
temperatures. Temperatures cool further for Sunday along with
lighter winds. The weekend looks dry except for lingering chances
Saturday morning. Moisture will not be too far to our east, and
models show that moisture trying to return for Monday. NBM now has
POPs for mainly our Texas and adjacent NM zones. With a minor
trough axis passage, slight POPs look reasonable.

Following Monday, guidance begins to struggle with the UL pattern.
A ridge is expected to build across the Pacific Coast before
expanding into the Western CONUS. Meanwhile latest guidance and
several ensemble members predict a s/w to move out of BC and
Alberta into MT. What becomes of that s/w afterwards is the
mystery. Consensus is that will drop southward along the front
side of the ridge. Deterministic models and a portion of
differing ensemble members want to close this low off and dig it
into the Desert SW. This pattern would give us rain and cooler
temperatures. Scenario 2, which odds tilt toward, is this low
either closes off farther east or continues east as an open wave
through the Southeast part of the US or even as far north as the
Ohio River Valley. This pattern would keep us dry and warm.
Looking at CPC`s 6-10 day outlook, this is the pattern they seem
to favor as well. Regardless temperatures will not be quite as hot
as today and tomorrow but would be closer to normal for late
September.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions expected with skies FEW-SCT 10-15 kft, becoming BKN
through the overnight and morning timeframe. Winds will be light
3-7 knots and generally VRB through the morning. Winds will be
S/SW during the afternoon at 8-13 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
possible. Areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley could see
ISO SHRA during the late morning and early afternoon timeframe.
Confidence is low so no mention in 06Z TAF issuance.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Near record warmth will continue for Friday but with modest
improvements in moisture. Min RH values will be in the upper teens
and lower 20s. Areas along and east of the Rio Grande will see a
slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Winds will be a bit
breezier tomorrow topping out 10 to 15 MPH. Venting will range
very good to excellent. Drier air sweeps in Saturday with a
decrease in temperatures. We will remain breezy with min RH values
in the lower and mid teens. Sunday remains dry but not as breezy.
Moisture will return to portions of the area on Monday with an
uncertain forecast Tuesday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74  97  73  93 /   0  10  30  10
Sierra Blanca            68  92  66  88 /   0  20  10  20
Las Cruces               67  94  66  90 /   0  10  20   0
Alamogordo               67  93  66  90 /   0  20  30  10
Cloudcroft               52  70  50  66 /   0  40  30  30
Truth or Consequences    64  91  62  85 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City              59  85  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   63  94  61  87 /   0   0  10   0
Lordsburg                62  90  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       74  94  72  90 /   0  20  30  10
Dell City                71  97  69  94 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             72  98  71  96 /   0  20  20  10
Loma Linda               69  89  66  85 /   0  20  20  10
Fabens                   72  96  70  92 /   0  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             69  93  69  88 /   0  20  20   0
White Sands HQ           72  93  70  89 /   0  20  20  10
Jornada Range            67  92  66  87 /   0  20  20  10
Hatch                    64  95  65  88 /   0  10  20   0
Columbus                 67  93  64  88 /   0  10  10   0
Orogrande                68  92  66  87 /   0  20  30  10
Mayhill                  56  82  54  79 /   0  40  30  30
Mescalero                57  81  54  77 /   0  50  40  30
Timberon                 56  79  53  75 /   0  30  30  20
Winston                  53  84  51  76 /   0  10  10   0
Hillsboro                61  90  59  83 /  10  10  10   0
Spaceport                62  92  62  85 /   0  10  20  10
Lake Roberts             53  83  48  74 /   0  10  10   0
Hurley                   58  88  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    54  92  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               56  84  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  62  87  57  79 /   0  10  10   0
Animas                   61  91  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  62  92  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  91  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  84  53  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers