-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
841
FXUS64 KEPZ 190923
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
323 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Dry and warm conditions will continue today with near record highs
possible for lowland locations today and Friday. A modest surge
of moisture from the east will bring slight rain chances for the
Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County on Friday afternoon and
early evening. Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures
will occur through the weekend with some breeziness in the
afternoon. Mostly dry conditions with seasonal temperatures are
expected next week with a slight potential for rain for areas east
of the Rio Grande.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The local area remains under a steady southwest flow pattern aloft
that is maintained by a Pacific low pressure system on the west
coast and an area of high pressure over central Texas. This will
maintain our dry and warm weather today with near record high
temperatures expected in the afternoon. Heating in the afternoon
will allow for greater mixing of the stronger winds aloft down to
the surface for afternoon breezes, especially in the Sierra County
area.

The southwest flow between the Pacific low and the high over
Texas will continue as the Pacific low begins to move inland
tonight and Friday. As the low moves into northern Arizona, a
surge of moisture will intrude into the area from the east. this
will set up a north-south oriented moisture convergence zone
between the dry southwest flow and moist southeast flow right over
Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

The increased moisture along this boundary will set up a
potential for showers thunderstorms for both counties with about a
30 percent chance for measurable rainfall in the Sacramento
Mountains with lower chances for southern Otero and Hudspeth
counties. The veering profile and speed sheer point to possible
strong thunderstorm development if their is enough moisture. The
most likely outcome will be more general type of storms that will
stay sub-severe. The western two thirds of the forecast area will
remain dry, warm, and breezy in the the afternoon with near record
high temperatures in the afternoon.


The Pacific low will lift northeast up into Colorado by Saturday
afternoon turning the flow pattern aloft into a more westerly
direction. This will push the surge of moisture back to the east
and out of the local area, ending rain chances for the weekend.
Breezy conditions are expected on Saturday with winds of 15 to 25
mph for much of the area. A pacific cool front associated with the
low will will move across the region and lower our abnormally
high temperatures of the past few days back down to just a few
degrees above normal with upper 80s to lower 90s expected for
Saturday and Sunday. Sunday will see dry conditions with lower
wind speeds as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the
area and winds aloft weaken.

For the long term outlook for next Monday through Wednesday, a
high degree of uncertainly remains for what kind of weather the
area may experience. Weather models struggle to forecast a
consistent weather scenario for next week as the main polar jet
shifts back to the north leaving the region in a weaker flow
pattern. Looking at a cluster analysis of the ensemble models a
larger portion of the ensemble members are trending toward some
sort of high pressure over the desert southwest that will minimize
and chances for showers or thunderstorms keeping the area dry. A
smaller but still significant number of ensemble members have the
local area at base of a deep trough that could develop into a
retrograding low that could re-introduce rain chances to the
region.

At this time, my medium confidence forecast for next week is for
the local area to remain mostly dry with very slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly east of El Paso. The
long range outlook also has temperatures trending toward normal
seasonal values by the latter part of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW100-250 and SKC. The winds will be generally light
below 10 kts while out from the southwest. However, the winds at
KTCS could gust up to 21 kts between 19 and 00Z Friday. There will
be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A steady southwest flow will maintain dry and warm conditions
over most of the area the next two days. A modest surge of
moisture from the east will produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Friday afternoon for portions of the Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County while the remainder of the region
remains dry with afternoon breezes. Dry dry and breezy conditions
will occur Saturday and Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures.
Minimum RH values will run in the mid to lower teens across the
lowlands with 20 percent values in the mountains. RH values will
increase slightly next week due to cooler temperatures and
increased moisture in the area. Vent rates for today through the
weekend will be in the very good to excellent range.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  97  75  97  71 /   0  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            92  68  90  66 /   0  10  20  20
Las Cruces               94  67  94  65 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               94  68  93  66 /   0  10  20  10
Cloudcroft               72  52  70  49 /   0  10  40  20
Truth or Consequences    92  65  91  61 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              84  60  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   92  64  93  59 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                89  62  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       94  73  94  71 /   0  10  10  10
Dell City                97  70  96  68 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Hancock             98  73  98  70 /   0   0  20  20
Loma Linda               89  69  88  66 /   0  10  20  20
Fabens                   95  72  95  69 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             92  69  92  67 /   0  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           94  72  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            93  66  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                    94  64  94  63 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus                 92  67  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                92  68  92  66 /   0  10  20  10
Mayhill                  84  57  82  54 /  10  10  40  20
Mescalero                83  57  81  54 /   0  10  40  20
Timberon                 82  55  80  52 /  10  10  30  20
Winston                  84  53  84  48 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro                90  61  90  56 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                92  62  91  61 /   0  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             83  54  82  48 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                   87  59  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    91  55  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               83  56  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  86  62  87  55 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                   91  62  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  90  62  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           90  60  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               84  57  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen