Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --193 FXUS64 KEPZ 180827 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 227 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dry and warm conditions will be prevalent across the area through the weekend. Slight rain chances are possible for the Sacramento mountains and portions of Hudspeth County on Friday afternoon with the remainder of the area remaining dry. Southwest to west winds will become lightly breezy in the afternoon each day.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A steady west to southwest flow pattern aloft will maintain a quiet weather pattern over the area for the next couple of days. Temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas will continue to run 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the afternoon with middle 90s for most lowland locations. With greater heating in the afternoon, there will be deeper mixing of the surface boundary layer with stronger winds aloft for some afternoon breeziness each day. On Friday will a Pacific low pressure system will move into northern Arizona, tightening the southwest flow between the low and a ridge of high pressure over central Texas. This will cause moisture south of the region to be pulled up over eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday, setting up a potential for some shower and thunderstorm development along a dry line expected to straddle Otero and Hudspeth counties by Friday afternoon. The Sacramento Mountains will have the best chance for measurable rainfall and storms at about 30 percent with some isolated showers and storms occurring across southern Otero and Hudspeth counties from mid afternoon to the early evening. Rain amounts will be spotty with a few locations getting moderate amounts of rain. For the remainder of the region west of the dry line, dry and warm conditions with afternoon breezes will continue. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend as a west to southwest flow pattern pushes moisture back east of the area. Latest model runs suggest moisture will again approach the area from the south and east on Sunday, but will likely remain far enough east to not impact the region. The weather forecast for the first part of next week has become a bit more unsettled and uncertain. Long range forecast models differ widely and have poor run to run continuity about what will occur next week. Overall they hint a the development of a deep low pressure trough over the middle of the country that will extend at least in part over the local area while at the same time bringing moisture into the region, increasing rain chances. On the flip side of that scenario the models sometimes also advertise that local area will be under a high pressure ridge for continued dry weather. Best low confidence forecast for next week is that the local area will remain mostly dry with some uncertainty regarding rain for areas mainly east of Rio Grande heading into mid-week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceilings across the area are unlimited with clear skies throughout the day. Light winds this morning will increase to 10 15 knots from the southwest with higher gusts in the afternoon. Winds will diminish to light and variable after 02z this evening.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dry and warm conditions will persist across most of the area through the weekend. There is a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms for portions of Otero and Hudspeth counties on Friday, including the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will be prevalent through into next week. Minimum RH values will be in the lower teens in the lowlands with 20 percent range in the mountains. The lowlands of South Central New Mexico will have elevated fire conditions with southwesterly breezes in the afternoon with daytime heating but wind speeds should stay below critical values. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent in the afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --El Paso 95 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 92 62 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 91 61 93 65 / 0 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 69 48 71 50 / 0 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 90 59 91 62 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 82 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 91 58 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 88 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 92 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 95 63 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 96 67 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 86 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 94 66 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 90 63 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 91 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 92 58 94 62 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 90 62 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 90 62 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 82 53 84 55 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 79 52 82 55 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 78 52 81 55 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 82 47 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 88 55 89 59 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 90 56 92 60 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 81 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 84 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 89 50 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 82 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 84 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 90 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 88 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 90 55 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 82 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen