Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --629 FXUS64 KEPZ 111723 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1123 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Hot weather will continue through the entire period with Thursday expected to be the hottest day. Except for the Sacramento Mountains, little to no rain chances are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 We hope everyone took advantage of the "cool" weather yesterday because it may be awhile before we are that "cool" again. UL low, centered near Lubbock, is continuing to pull away while a large UL low spins off the Baja Coast. As the Low to our east continues to move east, ridging will build over us, ahead of the Baja low. Temperatures will climb each day with Thursday expected to be the hottest day as the ~594 dm high centers itself near El Paso. Highs will range 98 to 102 in the lowlands today, 101 to 106 on Wednesday, and 104 to 109 on Thursday. El Paso has an 8% chance of reaching 110 according to the latest NBM. An excessive heat watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Friday night. Day shift will take another look and decide on what gets upgraded to an advisory and a warning and when, as necessary. During this time, just enough moisture will be available for the Sacs to see at least isolated thunderstorms with the rest of the area expected to be dry. On Friday, the Baja low ill have weakened into a trough as it absorbs into the main flow, cross the Four Corners by evening. NBM shows low pops, but GFS and Euro show moisture swept out too quickly for the trough`s dynamics to give us precip chances. The trough will bring an increase in winds, especially for the Gila. This area will need to be monitored for fire concerns. With the loss of heights, temperatures will come down a couple of degrees. The UL ridge begins to build in the trough`s wake to our east. We are still sufficiently in the trough`s influence for highs to drop a couple degrees more for Saturday, but temperatures begin climbing again as we head into Sunday and onward to the new work week as we sit in between a trough to our west and a ridge to our east as deep SW flow draws in hot air from Mexico. && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Wind speeds will generally stay at or below 10 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible in the afternoon. Direction will vary by site, favoring NW`LY at KELP.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Very dry and hot weather will continue through the period. Shallow moisture has moved through the area, however, so overnight recoveries will be a bit better than seen previous nights through this morning. The dry line will continue to make appearances for areas mainly east of the Rio Grande for subsequent overnight periods. Otherwise, very dry afternoons are expected as min RH values fall into the single digits. Enough moisture will linger in the Sacramento Mountains allowing at least isolated thunderstorms but chances for precipitation will be minimal elsewhere. Winds will top out around 10 MPH each afternoon through Thursday. On Friday, a passing short wave will increase winds especially for the Gila, creating near critical conditions. Fire headlines may be needed in future updates. Venting is expected to be good to very good today and tomorrow, improving to very good to excellent by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --El Paso 102 76 107 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 95 67 100 70 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 100 70 104 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 97 66 102 69 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 74 51 79 55 / 20 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 97 69 102 72 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 92 64 97 66 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 100 65 105 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 98 65 103 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 99 73 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 99 66 104 68 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 102 67 107 70 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 92 67 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 101 70 107 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 98 68 104 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 98 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 98 64 103 66 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 100 64 105 66 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 99 69 104 71 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 97 69 102 69 / 0 10 0 0 Mayhill 84 54 93 59 / 20 10 20 0 Mescalero 84 55 89 58 / 20 10 10 0 Timberon 83 54 87 56 / 20 10 10 0 Winston 89 59 94 61 / 10 10 10 0 Hillsboro 95 66 99 69 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 97 62 102 64 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 92 59 97 62 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 95 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 100 61 107 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 95 66 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 94 65 98 67 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 99 65 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 98 64 102 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 98 66 102 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 95 66 99 68 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422. Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419-423-424. Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416-417-427>429.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ FORECASTER...27-Laney