Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --433 FXUS64 KEPZ 232028 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 228 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through early next week. There is only a slight chance for thunderstorms across portions of the Hudspeth County this afternoon and on Tuesday afternoon. The temperatures will gradually warm a couple of degrees each consecutive day a least through the weekend as high pressure dominates out weather.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Currently, conditions are quiet and they should stay so for much of the area except maybe at Hudspeth county where there is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. For tonight, any storms that do develop across the Hudspeth county during this afternoon will diminish at least before midnight. The winds will be light and to low end breezy except in and around a thunderstorm. The flow near the surface will be from the southeast; thus, the low temperatures on Tuesday morning will be above the normal. For Tuesday, conditions will be somewhat similar to today. High pressure will begin to build in with slight troughing across portions of the eastern CWA. With troughing, moisture and instability across Hudspeth county, there will be a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that develop then, will not be severe in nature. The strongest storms should any develop will be this afternoon across the aforementioned area. With a ridge building in, the high temperatures in the afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer than what the high temperatures will be this afternoon across the entire area. For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be quiet as the upper level ridge remains across much of the far Southwest being blocked by a low across the Southern Mississippi Valley and the South Plains. Toward the end of the week, the ridge elongates across the far south and into the Midwest as shortwave trough digs across the Pacific Southwest. Each day through the weekend the temperatures will gradually increase a few degrees reaching to above the normal areawide by the earliest on Wednesday. By Monday, this trough will eject into the Rockies while flattening out this ridge allowing for the temperatures to cool to at or below the normal by early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW250 and SKC. The winds will be generally light below 10 kts and variable in direction. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Generally quiet weather is expected this afternoon with just a slight chance for active across the Hudsepth county. There will be some moisture in the area that will aide in showers and thunderstorm develop. Tonight recovery will be good to excellent. For Tuesday, drier air will move in. There may still be a slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm across the Hudspeth county. The winds will be light to low end breezy and temperatures near the normal areawide. For the rest of the period, conditions will be quiet. The winds will be light to breezy while the temperatures gradually increase a degree or two each consecutive day through the end of the week. With that said, there will be no fire weather concerns this week. The min RHs on Tuesday will be between 16 and 25% in the low elevations and between 30 and 40% in the high elevations. The min RHs on Wednesday will be somewhat similar to that of Tuesday. The ventilation rates will be poor to good on Tuesday then poor to excellent on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --El Paso 66 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 84 58 83 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 60 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 66 44 66 / 0 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 91 62 91 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 59 84 60 83 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 61 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 78 47 76 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 47 77 47 78 / 0 10 0 0 Timberon 46 75 48 75 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 46 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 54 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 55 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 83 49 83 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 53 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 91 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 54 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 58 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira