-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
681
FXUS62 KFFC 151750
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

 - The warmest temperatures of the year so far are expected this
   afternoon.

 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this
   afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

Today and Sunday:

Heat remains the primary forecast concern this weekend. Widespread
high temperatures in the upper 90s are forecast today, then a mix of
mid and upper 90s are anticipated on Sunday. A few areas could tip
over the triple digit threshold this afternoon along a line from
Columbus to Macon, where NBM guidance suggests 10-25 percent chances
of reaching 100 degrees. These would be the first 100 degree
readings of the year in central Georgia should they occur. As noted
yesterday, relatively low humidity values (30 to 45 percent) should
keep peak heat indices in the 98 to 104 degree range today and
Sunday. Given that the threshold for a Heat Advisory is a heat index
of at least 105 degrees, we do not anticipate issuing any heat
related products this weekend. Caution should still be exercised by
anyone with outdoor activities planned as these temperatures will be
6 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages and the warmest temperatures
of the year so far. If possible limit intense outdoor activities to
the morning or evening hours, and ensure that you stay hydrated with
plenty of water.

The primary change in the forecast over the last 24 hours is the
introduction of isolated thunderstorm chances (15-20%) this
afternoon and evening. Concerns remain regarding the ability of
convection to overcome subsidence from an upper level ridge and
limited low level moisture. However, CAM guidance has been
consistent from run to run in generating isolated storms along a
weak convergence zone near the Interstate 20 corridor and this has
increased forecaster confidence. Where and if storms develop,
downburst winds could become a concern. Forecast soundings for this
afternoon have significant inverted V profiles below 700 mb and
DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, both of which are favorable for
evaporative cooling and downbursts. Additional isolated thunderstorm
activity is anticipated Sunday afternoon, when slightly higher
surface dewpoints should compensate for high temperatures that are 1-
3 degrees lower than today.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Highlights:

 - Warm, above normal temperatures continue through the long
   term.

 - Isolated rain and thunder chances will be possible next week.

Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of
the long term period (Sunday night) and will influence the weather
pattern through the majority of the period. On Monday, midlevel
ridging becomes centered across the Eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure will be offshore resulting in some moisture return. This
will equate to continued above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Any rain and thunder chances remain a possibility next
week but isolated in nature given building midlevel ridging aloft.
While no severe weather is expected at this time, an isolated
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out with any storms that do form
and quickly collapse. Latest guidance continues to indicate a slight
uptick in PoPs towards next weekend as the influence of midlevel
ridging becomes weaker and surface high pressure pushes further
offshore. Forecast temperatures through the long term will be in
the low to mid 90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where
temperatures will be in the 80s. Forecast low temperatures will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conds to continue with primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 5-7kft. Isold
-TSRA psbl this aftn/eve at northern TAF sites between 21-01Z.
 Low-end chc of brief pd of decreased vsbys in HZ this aftn.
 Tomorrow, higher coverage of aftn -TSRA psbl, covered at present
 by a PROB30 from 19-23Z. Winds are likely to be light/VRB to CALM
 at times thru the TAF pd, especially overnight, but will remain
 primarily out of the SE aft 19-20Z at 6-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence TSRA coverage and timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          72  92  71  90 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         75  94  74  92 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     68  86  67  85 /  20  50  30  30
Cartersville    73  94  73  93 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus        75  97  75  94 /  10  20  20  10
Gainesville     72  90  72  88 /  20  30  30  10
Macon           73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
Rome            73  96  74  94 /  10  40  20  20
Peachtree City  73  95  72  93 /  20  20  20   0
Vidalia         74  96  73  93 /  10  20  20  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96