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226
FXUS65 KFGZ 100458
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 PM MST Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday, then
becoming warmer for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Anticipate
mainly dry conditions during this time, aside from isolated
showers and thunderstorms along the Arizona-New Mexico border on
Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...Some very light returns are popping up on current radar
mainly across eastern portions of northern Arizona, however,
expecting very little, if any, rainfall actually reaching the
ground given how dry it is at the surface. Winds have gone light,
under 10 mph, for the most part with tranquil conditions expected
overnight. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be a tad
cooler compared to last night`s due to the lower humidity
anticipated tonight. Mid to upper-level cloud cover should
decrease from west to east as the night progresses as a shortwave
ridge develops over the region, drying conditions out further.
Daytime temperatures will begin to increase each afternoon from
Monday through Thursday with heat impacts likely to our lower
valley/canyon locations on Wednesday and Thursday. Still no
indication of any appreciable moisture headed our way anytime soon
with the heat expected to stick around. Southwest winds do look to
increase for the latter half of this week, resulting in possible
critical fire weather conditions. The current forecast remains on
track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 PM MST/...A weak wave within the flow around
the high to our west is bringing ample mid and high level clouds
for the afternoon. Nothing like some much appreciated heat relief.
Still expecting very minimal precip input from this wave, though
some isolated showers/storms are possible for the Chuskas/Four
Corners/White Mountains.

Going into the first part of this work week, high pressure is
expected to restrengthen and build into the state. This is going
to allow temperatures to start moderating once again with pretty
light and variable winds, even for the afternoons. While this is
happening, a low will become parked off the Baja coast, which will
have implications on our forecast later.

By Wednesday and into the end of this work week, the high to our
east continues to strengthen while the low to our west starts to
shift and strengthen as well. This will ramp up our southerly
winds with increasing confidence in 30+ mph wind gusts Thursday
into Friday. That wind, combined with afternoon RHs in the low
teens to single digits, will result in elevated fire weather
concerns that we will be monitoring. By Friday that low should be
moving inland, pushing moisture into the mid and upper levels.
This could result in high based thunderstorms that would produce
minimal precipitation.

Right now expecting dry, hot weather to return next weekend with
zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
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Monday 10/06Z through Tuesday 11/06Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. Light and variable winds becoming
S-SW 10-20 kts after 17Z. ISO SHRA east of 0V7-KRQE line.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/06Z through Thursday 13/06Z...VFR. W-SW winds
5-15 kts with localized gusts 20-25 kts during the afternoons.
Light and variable winds expected each overnight period.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Temperatures will gradually
warm, with mostly dry conditions. There is a slight chance for
showers/storms along our AZ/NM border Monday afternoon. Minimum RH
values will range between 5-20%, with more widespread single digits
on Tuesday. West-southwest afternoon winds at 5-15 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will peak on Wednesday,
becoming cooler through the end of the week. Southwest to west winds
each afternoon 15-25 mph, gusting near 30-35 mph. Elevated fire
weather conditions will remain likely for the end of the week due to
strong winds and 5-15% minimum RH values.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/RKR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff