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877
FXUS65 KFGZ 080359
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
859 PM MST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue, although they
will peak today, with some cooling over the weekend. Any isolated
showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern
Arizona through Sunday. Another warming trend returns for the middle
of next week.

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.UPDATE...
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Only a few isolated showers remain towards the AZ/NM
border this evening with the rest of the region having cleared
out. Temperatures were hot again today with a few record highs
set this afternoon. The Excessive Heat Warning was allowed to
expire this evening as temperatures have started to drop off and
the hottest temperatures have already occurred. While temperatures
will remain above normal through the weekend, the daily high
temperatures will not be quite as hot as they have been the past
few days as the ridge starts to break down and push to the east.

Another round of some convection is possible through the weekend,
with the best chances across the eastern parts of the state.
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.PREV DISCUSSION /409 PM MST/...
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The weak influx of moisture combined with high
instability from ample heating is allowing for ample isolated
storms to develop in far eastern Arizona today. This activity is
expected to persist into the evening, especially for over the
White Mountains. Activity will eventually diminish early tonight
with the loss of heating.

Over the weekend, the ridge over Arizona will weaken and shift
east. This, combined with a weak trough settling in place to our
west will help bring some small relief to our current heat. While
POPs decrease for the weekend, high based convection is still
possible with greatest odds over and near the White Mountains,
though anything isolated forming over the higher terrain can not
be totally ruled out.

As we head into the start of next week, little change in the
overall pattern is expected, so weather conditions will be the
same for Monday and Tuesday, albeit warming slightly. However as
we go into the middle and later parts of next week, the trough
will start to move east while the high to our east strengthens.
This will set us up for temperatures to warm several degrees again
Wednesday, followed up by a slightly stronger (still minimal)
push of moisture into the area, bringing high based convection and
additional clouds to help bring temperatures back down by the
later part of next work week.
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.AVIATION...
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Saturday 08/00Z through Sunday 09/00Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Look for isolated thunderstorms through 02Z over
and south of Four Corners. Gusty/erratic winds near storms. Winds
becoming light and variable by 03Z but return on Saturday
southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to around 25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/00Z through Tuesday 11/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Isolated thunderstorms mainly Sunday afternoon
across eastern Arizona. Southwest winds 10-20 kts each afternoon.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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Saturday through Sunday...Hot conditions are
expected through Saturday with a slight cooldown on Sunday. It will
be mainly dry but isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday
across eastern Arizona with gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning.
Minimum RH values between 5-15% both afternoons with decent
overnight recoveries. Southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures gradually warm each day with
continued dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible across
eastern AZ on Wednesday. Minimum RH values will be between 5-15%
with southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon.
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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/RKR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff