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138
FXUS65 KFGZ 062149
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
249 PM MST Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the
week, with isolated showers/thunderstorms across the higher terrain
through the weekend. Afternoon highs will gradually cool Saturday
and Sunday, before another warming trend returns next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Hot weather will continue through the end of the week
as high pressure sits just off to the east and low pressure is to
the southwest.

This set up is allowing for a little bit of moisture to make it into
the region but not enough to call it the monsoon. The moisture flow
is originating from Mexico and off towards the Gulf of Mexico. With
this influx of moisture we are seeing good cumulus cloud
development along the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, While
Mountains, Chuska Mountains, and off towards the Grand Canyon and
Kaibab Plateau. The hindrance here is that the low levels are quite
dry so any clouds that manage to develop into storms will drop
precipitation that largely evaporates before it reaches the surface.
There is a risk for some isolate thunderstorms this afternoon with
dry lightning being the main hazard.

A new fire in the Bellemont area (Bravo Fire) is producing a good
amount of smoke that will settle down to the surface this evening
and overnight. With the heat, we know many like to open windows for
the cooler night air but tonight it might be best to avoid opening
the windows due to smoke. Areas around Bellemont may see some smoke
and haze through the night, as well.

The high starts to push to the east on Friday with the ridge
breaking down across the southwest. This will be the start of slight
cooldown across our area. Friday will still be hot, especially in
the Grand Canyon, Glen and Marble Canyons, and the lower elevations
of Yavapai County. No changes to the heat headlines were made.

The heat starts to ease a bit on Saturday and Sunday as the low off
to the southwest starts to move northward and into southern Arizona.
Temperatures will be closer to normal as we head through Sunday.
Continued isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Arizona (mainly towards the White Mountains).

Heading into the new week, we will once again see high pressure
building in from the southeast. This will bring hot temperatures
back into the region with the possibility for heat headlines.

Models are indicating that a strong area of low pressure will
develop off the southern California coast early in the week and then
tracks into the Desert Southwest. Something to keep an eye on as
this has the potential to bring us better chances for some showers
and thunderstorms.
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&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 06/18Z through Friday 07/18Z...VFR outside of
ISOLD high-based -SHRA/-TSRA. TS are most likely to develop and
impact localized areas from 20Z-02Z with erratic, gusty winds from
downbursts. Be wary of areas near virga below high-based storms.
S-SW surface winds at 5-15kts, gusting near 20 kts will become
light, variable after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 07/18Z through Sunday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected with ongoing afternoon (18Z-02Z) ISOLD high-based
SHRA/TSRA, primarily for eastern Arizona. Winds increase the next
few days out of the SW at 10-20 kts, gusting near 25kts from
17Z-02Z. Otherwise, light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Tonight through Saturday...Light, variable winds
tonight with recovery RH in the 30s to mid 50s. Daytime temperatures
remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday before beginning to cool
gradually on Saturday. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon, primarily for eastern Arizona. Storm
related hazards include dry lightning and erratic, gusty winds.
Wetting rains are unlikely. Afternoon RH values near single digits
Friday will increase into the teens Saturday. Away from storms,
breezy southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph, gusting near 25 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures decrease Sunday and Monday,
but remain a few degrees above normal. Isolated, high-based
thunderstorms continue for eastern zones. Afternoon RH values from
10-20 percent and southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Warmer and drier
conditions return Tuesday.
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&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff