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103
FXUS65 KFGZ 031118
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 AM MST Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hotter temperatures and dry conditions are expected
as high pressure builds into the into Arizona for much of this
week. Slightly cooler temperatures expected by the weekend, along
with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Not much change in the forecast through Thursday as
near normal temperatures today and Tuesday give way to much
hotter weather mid to late week. This is due to strong high
pressure building over the state. There were some changes to the
forecast later in the week as the influence from the closed low
off the Baja peninsula is somewhat less in the latest guidance for
our region Friday/Saturday. The low is forecast to move more
slowly northward, keeping the high in place and allowing for less
moisture/clouds for Friday and Saturday. For this reason, the
Excessive Heat Watch for the lower elevations of Yavapai Co, Grand
Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons/Page has been extended and now
includes both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below 4000 feet in
these areas are forecast to reach 105-111 degrees. It will be hot
elsewhere too, upper 90s for Prescott/Payson, near 90 at
Flagstaff/Show Low/Window Rock, and 100-104 in the LCR
Valley/Winslow. With the lower expected moisture availability,
PoPs have also dropped off and are now around 20% for the White
Mtns Thursday and Friday and below 10% elsewhere. Chances for
Saturday and Sunday are around 10-20% for most of northern
Arizona. Any shower/storm activity still looks to be high-based
with little rainfall, gusty winds, and some isolated dry
lightning. As the weak low shifts northward toward the state over
the weekend, high temperatures should be slightly less hot - back
down to within a few degrees of normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
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Monday 03/12Z through Tuesday 04/12Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will
last through at least 16Z, with W-SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near
25 kts afterwards. Light and variable winds will return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 04/12Z through Thursday 06/12Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the outlook period. Look for W-NW winds 5-15
kts on Tuesday, becoming more variable in direction on Wednesday.
Overnight winds are forecast to be light and variable.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warming temperatures and dry
conditions will continue each afternoon. Look for west-southwest
winds 10-20 mph on Monday, becoming west-northwest winds 5-15 mph on
Tuesday. Minimum RH values will mostly be between 10-20%, with
overnight recoveries widely ranging from 35-75%.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures are expected to climb 10+
degrees above normal, with mostly dry conditions. There is a slight
chance for high-based showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday,
primarily for our eastern zones. Winds generally 10 mph or less and
varying in direction forecast for Wednesday, becoming more southwest
5-15 mph Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values generally between 5-
15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
evening for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff