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605
FXUS64 KFWD 200702
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
202 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Today and Saturday/

Seasonally anomalous hot/humid conditions will intensify today as
the center of a strong upper-level ridge remains focused over the
region. With a warm, moist airmass bolstered by modest southerly
low-level winds, dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today. Intense diurnal heating (approaching daily temperature
records) coupled with this persistent elevated moisture (surface
dewpoints exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology) will yield
widespread triple digit heat index values this afternoon.
Additionally, these well above-normal dewpoints will continue to
help keep overnight temperatures high. How high? Following
yesterdays record high low, DFW will again challenge the records
for highest lows both today and tomorrow.

Todays forecast low: 78F vs record high low: 79F (2016)
Saturdays forecast low: 78F vs record high low: 78F (1925, 1980, 2017)

In line with recent trends in observations, the forecast lows for
both mornings employ a blend of the NBM 50th percentile and MOS
guidance, nudging lows slightly higher than the deterministic NBM.
By Saturday, the center of the prevailing ridge will begin to
shift southward over Central Texas as a southern stream upper
low/trough pushes towards the Four Corners region. This should be
sufficient to shave a couple of degrees off of temperatures on
Saturday with highs generally in the mid 90s. Unfortunately, with
dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s to lower 70s, heat index values
will still top out between 100-104F during the peak of the
afternoon on Saturdayjust below heat advisory criteria. Please
remember to take adequate precautions against the elevated
potential for heat illnesses over the next few days. This includes
(and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent
breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your
vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke.

12
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/Saturday Onward/

Unseasonably hot weather will continue over the weekend in the
presence of anomalous mid-level heights. A few locations will
reach or exceed 100 degrees on Saturday afternoon while heat
index values climb to 100-105. A shortwave trough traversing the
Central Plains will aid in eroding the ridge axis from the north
by Sunday, helping to drop temperatures a couple of degrees while
also increasing mid/high cloud cover during peak heating. A front
associated with this trough will encroach on the CWA late in the
day and slowly proceed into North Texas heading into Monday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should accompany this feature,
and PoPs have been increased from previous forecasts for the
Sunday night into Monday period.

As the front stalls through the area during the first half of the
week, it will support a couple of additional opportunities for
rainfall through at least Wednesday. A vague overrunning regime
could materialize as the front progressively loses its identity,
while northwest flow prevails aloft. Despite the lack of any
noteworthy cool post-frontal air, the increased cloud cover
should be sufficient to hold highs in the 80s for many areas
during the first half of the workweek. Signs point toward a return
to stronger upper ridging by the end of the week, although this
will depend largely on the eventual evolution of any possible
tropical system in the Gulf. For this reason, the forecast beyond
day 6 contains abnormally high uncertainty.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

No significant aviation weather concerns through the current TAF
cycle as strong high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region. VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals
through the period with surface winds generally out of the south
at 5-10kt and occasional gusts to 15kts. Morning MVFR cigs should
once again remain well south of Waco.

12
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  78  97  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                98  75  97  70  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               98  74  96  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              99  75  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            99  75  98  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              99  77  98  75  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             99  74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           99  75  97  72  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              99  73  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       99  73  96  71  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$