-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
756
FXUS64 KFWD 171039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
Update:

No major changes were necessary through the short term, with
isolated/scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected
mainly across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon.
There is still a chance that a more consolidated seabreeze could
materialize, allowing convection to push farther northwestward
with greater coverage than presently advertised. This potential is
rather slim, but 30-40 kts of low-level flow could allow
convective coverage to overachieve through the late afternoon
period.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday/

Tropical moisture from the Gulf will be funneled northward within
strengthening southeasterly low-level flow through the first half
of the week, with PW values progressively increasing. This will
contribute to morning stratus intrusions, followed by scattered
shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Rain
chances both today and Tuesday will be highest across the
southeast, tapering off to near zero farther to the northwest.
Given the rather robust southeasterly low-level flow of as much as
30-40 kts, a fairly active seabreeze feature could become
established. In this case, convection could certainly spread as
far north as the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. Showers and
storms will cease with loss of heating with tranquil weather
overnight. While this activity would be incapable of producing
severe weather, brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds are
certainly possible. Thanks to increased moisture content, cloud
cover, and the presence of some rain-cooled air, high
temperatures will only reach the low to mid 90s across most of the
area both today and tomorrow.

-Stalley
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Rain showers will be on the increase across Central Texas late
Tuesday night as a plume of deep tropical moisture surges
northwest into the area. The tropical disturbance responsible for
the precipitation will be in the process of moving inland across
South Texas, placing North and Central Texas within a zone of
strong warm/moist air advection. Showers will spread northwest
through the forecast area during the day Wednesday, with
occasional thunderstorms possible in the afternoon as surface
instability is attained. The latest model guidance indicates that
the axis of exceptionally high moisture content will be along and
southwest of a line from roughly Wichita Falls to Palestine, where
2.25" PWATs are a good possibility (around 150% of normal). This
would include pretty much all of Central Texas and western
portions of the DFW Metroplex, and would be the most likely area
where training showers and storms could produce a threat for
flooding. It is possible that a southeast to northwest rain band
could set up and continue into the night, enhancing the flood
threat on a local scale.

It is too soon to bank on any one scenario, but good to keep in
mind that locally higher amounts (above the generally 1 to 3
inches forecast) of rain are possible somewhere southwest of the
aforementioned geographical line. Rainfall totals (and the threat
for flooding) northeast of this line would be significantly less.
The exact location of the moist axis could also shift one way or
another, either decreasing or increasing the threat for locally
heavy rain. Unfortunately the bust potential is also quite high,
because if the system were to wrap up over the Gulf and become
more intense than currently forecast, precipitation might become
more confined to South Texas while North/Central Texas becomes
displaced too far north in the subsident zone. We should be able
to refine these and other details over the next 48 hours.

Whatever the case, Wednesday night precipitation will exit from
east to west on Thursday as the tropical system progresses west
across Mexico. A mid level ridge will re-strengthen overhead in
its wake, ending rain chances and bringing typical summer weather
in time for the weekend. Another easterly wave will create at
least a slight chance of rain during the early to middle part of
next week.

30
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Very patchy MVFR cigs will affect most TAF sites on an
intermittent basis for the next few hours before prevailing VFR
resumes later this morning. This afternoon, isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity will spread northwestward into parts of East
and Central Texas, perhaps affecting the Waco TAF site and even
parts of D10 through the late afternoon hours. The potential for
convection at the DFW Metroplex TAF sites is too low to currently
mention in the TAFs, but there is a small chance that a
consolidated seabreeze could allow for convection to spread into
the TAF sites prior to dissipating this evening. Otherwise, a
persistent southeast breeze of 10-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts
will prevail through the period. Another round of MVFR stratus is
expected to develop after 06z tonight, and should be more
widespread than what has been observed this morning.

-Stalley
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  92  75  83 /  20   5  10   5  30
Waco                91  75  90  74  81 /  20   5  20  10  60
Paris               90  72  90  72  86 /  20  10  10   5  20
Denton              93  75  92  74  82 /  10   5   5   5  30
McKinney            92  74  91  73  82 /  20   5  10   5  30
Dallas              93  75  92  75  82 /  20   5  20  10  30
Terrell             91  74  90  73  83 /  20  10  20  10  40
Corsicana           93  76  92  74  81 /  20  10  20  20  50
Temple              93  75  91  74  79 /  20   5  20  20  60
Mineral Wells       93  75  92  73  82 /   5   0   5   5  30
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$