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518
FXUS64 KFWD 220904
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
404 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/Issued 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/
/Overnight through Monday/

One more hot day is in store for North Texas before a cold front
moves through and brings rain chances along with cooler weather
through the middle part of the week. Mid level ridging will
continue to get squished to the south as stronger troughing
overspreads the western and central CONUS through Monday. This
initial shortwave trough will send a cold front southward through
North Texas later this evening. Right now, the front is draped
across the TX Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma with a
noticeable outflow boundary from earlier convection draped across
central Oklahoma. This will effectively become the cold front
later today and will spread south into North Texas this evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing mainly to our
northwest this afternoon, although a few storms could sneak into
our northwest counties during this time. Better rain chances will
arrive with the front this evening, although the strongest
synoptic forcing for ascent will begin to pull away to the
northeast by tonight. The highest PoPs this evening will be along
the front mainly across our far western counties, where a semi-
organized cluster of storms should be ongoing. Farther northeast
along the front, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, although rainfall amounts should be lighter than areas
to the southwest. Rain chances will linger through the overnight
hours and into Monday morning as the front makes slow southward
progress and another upstream shortwave races through the Southern
Plains.

Highs today will top out in the mid 90s under partly cloudy skies,
but will drop 5-15 degrees on Monday with clouds lingering around
and north winds ushering in some cooler air.

Dunn
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push
well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming
stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high
pressure over the Central Plains will enable a peristent
northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest
period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the
spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this
coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve
encountered of late.

A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across
the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller-
scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on
the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent
brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our
second primary opportunity for precipitaton across the area this
week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms,
will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder
of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and
lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should
remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most
of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late
Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that
point onward through Saturday.


The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface
flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to
reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal
norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower
80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the
central counties. These values were consistent with those offered
by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows
in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will
definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like.


Bradshaw
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/Issued 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through today with south winds around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along an
approaching cold front to our west this afternoon. This front will
spread through the D10 airspace this evening and we`ll show a wind
shift to the north around 01Z. Scattered showers and a few storms
are likely to develop and continue through much of the overnight
hours before diminishing in coverage on Monday.

Dunn
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  67  81  67  83 /  10  50  50  10  20
Waco                95  70  87  69  87 /   5  40  30  10  30
Paris               93  68  83  63  84 /   5  30  50  10  10
Denton              93  65  80  62  84 /  20  50  50  10  20
McKinney            94  68  82  64  84 /   5  40  50  10  20
Dallas              95  69  84  67  84 /  10  50  50  10  20
Terrell             95  69  85  66  85 /   5  30  40  10  20
Corsicana           95  72  87  69  87 /   5  20  30  10  20
Temple              95  71  88  69  88 /   5  30  20  10  30
Mineral Wells       92  63  79  62  82 /  40  70  40  20  30
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$