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811
FXUS64 KFWD 161800
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

A warm and breezy afternoon is uunderwayacross North Texas with
temperatures steadily climbing into the lower 90s under partly
cloudy skies. A weak disturbance passing to our north resulted in
a few showers/storms off to the west through the late morning, but
these have since dissipated and no additional precipitation is
expected this afternoon. The remainder of the evening and
overnight will feature continued southerly winds with overnight
lows falling into the mid 70s.

While strong ridging will be setting up over the eastern CONUS
resulting in a pronounced heat wave, North Texas will be
positioned between an amplifying trough to the west and the
stronger ridge to the east. Persistent southerly flow will allow
deeper tropical moisture to spread inland a bit during the day
Monday as an inverted mid level trough makes its way westward
across the Gulf. This trough will begin to take on tropical
characteristics later this week, but until then, a plume of 2.5"+
PWs will approach the TX coast late Monday beneath a weakness in
the height fields across North Texas. This should lead to an
appreciable uptick in convection across southeast TX tomorrow
afternoon, some of which will spread into our eastern and
southeastern counties. We`ve nudged PoPs upward to 40-50% across
our southeast counties with lower PoPs as far west as the I-35
corridor. Most of this activity will be diurnally driven and peak
during the late afternoon with a quick reduction in coverage by
evening. Given the increasing moisture content, locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat with this activity into the
middle part of the week.

Dunn
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

In Summary: A tropical wave extending from East Texas to the
western Gulf will provide increasing rain chances as it moves
slowly west-northwest across Central-South Texas and northern
Mexico through the midweek period.


Any lingering showers from Monday will dissipate around sunset,
with redevelopment of scattered showers and isolated storms
expected Tuesday afternoon. Similar to Monday, Tuesday`s
convection will be limited to East and Central Texas where the
better moisture will be.

A more significant surge of tropical moisture will occur on
Wednesday (when the highest POPs will likely be) as the system
gets a little better organized. Fortunately the system will
simultaneously be moving inland, which should hinder any further
intensification. Regardless of the intensity of the wave, a slug
of 2.25" PWATs will enter Central Texas on Wednesday, with the
nose of 2-inch PWATs reaching as far north as the Red River. The
better rain chances will be across Central and South Texas where
the deepest tropical moisture will exist. Scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms should still extend northward to the
I-20 corridor, with more isolated activity along the Red River.

Localized flooding is a possibility where any training showers or
storms may occur. A widespread flood threat is not expected
across the CWA at this time, as convection should remain mostly
isolated to scattered in nature. In fact, the latest probabilities
of receiving 3 or more inches of rain in a 72 hour period are at
or below 20 percent area-wide. That being said, a few of the
Central Texas zones may end up with a higher rainfall forecast if
the system takes a more northerly track, so we will need to keep
an eye on that.

Either way, precipitation will end from east to west on Thursday
as the easterly wave accelerates west across Mexico. Subsidence in
the wake of the system will bring a return to seasonably warm and
rain-free weather for Friday and Saturday, with the possible exception
of the far southeast counties where an isolated seabreeze storm
may reach before dissipating. A second tropical wave to the south
and a weak front entering from the north may bring additional
rain chances next week to begin the final week of June.

30

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through late tonight with south flow 10-20 kt. A
stratus intrusion will result in MVFR cigs around sunrise with
continued south flow. Scattered cumulus is expected Monday
afternoon with an increase in afternoon showers mainly east of the
major airports.

Dunn
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  76  92  76  91 /   0   0  10   0  10
Waco                91  75  91  74  89 /   0   0  20   0  20
Paris               92  73  90  72  89 /   0   0  20   5  20
Denton              94  74  93  73  91 /   0   0   5   0  10
McKinney            93  74  91  73  90 /   0   0  10   0  20
Dallas              94  76  93  75  91 /   0   0  10   0  20
Terrell             92  74  90  73  89 /   0   0  20   0  20
Corsicana           94  76  92  75  90 /   0   0  30   5  20
Temple              93  75  92  74  89 /   5   0  20   0  20
Mineral Wells       93  74  92  75  90 /   5   0   0   0   5
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$