Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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848 FXUS64 KFWD 151721 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ Mostly sunny and warm conditions will continue for the rest of the afternoon with low chances for thunderstorms mainly south of I-20. Latest visible satellite imagery shows some puffy cumulus developing across our southwest counties within an axis of increasing instability. Weak northeast flow is spreading in across the region and this will set up an area of focused low level convergence within this instability axis this afternoon. We should see an uptick in scattered convection mainly across the southern half of the CWA this afternoon where we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. This activity will be diurnally driven and will decrease in coverage with loss of heating. Any storms that develop could produce some gusty winds along with frequent lightning. It should be quiet overnight with slightly cooler air in place across our northeast counties where lows will drop into the mid and upper 60s. Elsewhere, it`ll be mild with lows in the 70s. Monday should feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s as we start to see a little more influence from mid level ridging and lower PWs. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 248 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/ Update: There is very little change to the long-term portion of the forecast. Above-average temperatures and mostly sunny conditions will persist through much of the work week across North and Central Texas. We will be monitoring for a potential pattern change in the late Friday-Saturday timeframe that could bring increased rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures back to the region. See the previous discussion below for more details. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Upcoming Week and Beyond/ Near to slightly above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions can be expected for all of North and Central Texas through the upcoming work week. Afternoon highs will generally range between the low to mid 90s, with a few locations out west approaching the upper 90s. It will feel much like a typical late summer setup for most of the region, at least through the next week or so. Overnight lows will stay warm and humid thanks to the return of southerly flow at the surface and increased dew points, hovering around the mid 70s each night. Rain chances will remain low through the week, giving way to abnormally dry conditions. Our flow pattern will continue to be dictated by weak upper level ridging across the Southern Plains, keeping us in northwesterly flow aloft. Widespread subsidence will keep the best rain chances to our north and west, with low confidence in any showers or storms reaching our area through much of the week ahead. But there is potential for a pattern change next weekend! The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at a breakdown of this upper level ridge, which would allow troughing across the western and eastern CONUS to guide our weather conditions. While confidence remains quite low regarding specifics at this time, this would help to increase rain chances as we move into the latter half of the month. This would also bring about cooler temperatures for most of the region, reminding us that this summer weather will eventually come to an end. Continue to check back for updates to the forecast as details become more refined! Reeves && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR should prevail through the period with generally easterly flow 5 to 10 kt. Wind direction may be more east-northeast across D10 late in the period, but speeds should generally remain 10 kt or less. There will some low storm chances around ACT this afternoon but coverage is expected to be a little to low for mention in the TAF. We`ll continue to monitor this potential. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 72 91 71 90 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 70 94 69 94 / 20 10 0 0 0 Paris 88 67 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 92 67 91 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 94 67 90 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 95 71 92 70 92 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 93 67 89 68 90 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 70 92 70 92 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 98 70 94 69 95 / 30 20 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 95 69 92 68 93 / 20 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$