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497
FXUS64 KFWD 200009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
709 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

As Tropical Storm Alberto nears landfall south of the Texas
border, light rain will persist into the overnight across
portions of Central Texas primarily south of the I-20 corridor as
our regions remains on the northern fringes of deep moisture.
Rainfall totals thus far have remained generally below a tenth of
an inch. However, a WNW moving band of moderate rainfall
currently located near Brenham and La Grange may nudge totals
toward a quarter-inch across our far southern reaches over the
next few hours.

We expect a lull in rainfall later tonight into Thursday morning
as this shield of precipitation exits to the east as high pressure
over the Eastern CONUS pushes TS Alberto inland over Mexico. A
high PWAT airmass (although to a lesser degree than today) will
remain over Central Texas Thursday keeping chances for isolated
showers in the forecast Thursday afternoon. Much of this activity
will remain south of the Hwy 22 corridor, keeping the Metroplex
and areas north dry. With the remnants of Alberto exiting to the
west, an increase in sunshine will push afternoon temperatures
back into the upper 80s to mid-90s for much of the region
Thursday. We hope you enjoyed the slightly cooler temperatures
today, because it is looking hot, hot, hot in the extended
forecast.

Langfeld
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/
/Thursday Night through Wednesday/

Mid level ridging will continue to build across the Plains by
Friday and persist through much of next week meaning the first
week of astronomical summer will get off to a very hot start. The
center of the ridge axis will be over the Mid South on Friday and
shift westward across North Texas and into West Texas by Sunday.
Temperatures will steadily climb from the mid 90s on Friday to
near 100 degrees on Sunday and Monday. In addition to the heat,
deeper boundary layer moisture is expected across Central and
North Texas Monday through Wednesday leading to heat indices
between 105-110 degrees. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
across much of the area next week. While the ridge axis will
continue a westward push through the middle of the week allowing
for modest north/northwesterly flow aloft, rain chances look to
remain at 10% or less for much of our area.

Dunn
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light rain showers and virga will continue primarily south of I-20
this evening as the region remains on the northern fringe of deep
moisture associated with Tropical Storm Alberto. Precipitation
will move to the west of KACT later this evening with additional
isolated showers possible across Central Texas toward the end of
this TAF period Thursday afternoon.

SCT to BKN MVFR cigs ~2-3kft will likely return to KACT late
tonight into early Thursday morning and potentially the D10
terminals (30-40% chance) after 13Z Thursday morning. Cigs will
scatter and lift to VFR status by midday for all TAF sites. ESE
winds around 10 kts will lighten and shift more ENE later this
evening. ESE winds will increase once again during the day
Thursday to 10-15 kts.

Langfeld
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  93  77  94  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                74  91  73  92  74 /  30  10   0   5   0
Paris               74  91  71  93  73 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              74  92  73  95  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            74  92  73  94  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              76  94  76  95  77 /  10   5   0   0   0
Terrell             74  92  73  93  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  93  75  94  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  90  73  92  72 /  30  20   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  91  73  93  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$