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830
FXUS65 KGJT 102048
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
248 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Showers and storms continue today. Gusty outflow winds will
  be the primary threat from storms.

- Temperatures will cool slightly today, then increase over the
  next few days, with highs nearly 15 degrees over normal
  expected Wednesday/Thursday afternoon.

- Drier weather is expected from Tuesday onwards. Active weather
  returns late week as the next system arrives Friday, along
  with some temperature relief.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A boundary that moved down the Front Range yesterday and an exiting
low pressure system over the Southern Plains have resulted in
return moisture from the south. Some of this moisture was in the
form of clouds, which blanketed a large portion of the area
through late morning. The presence of these clouds has limited
surface heating at some locations therefore affecting the
strength and timing of afternoon convection. Storms have already
developed in spots and that trend will continue through about
sunset. The latest high-res models are not showing a strong
signal as what areas will be favored. Given the dry low level
air mass in place strong gusty winds of 40-50 mph are the main
threat this afternoon. Perhaps some of the mountains could see
brief moderate rainfall. A trough moving eastward over Northern
Plains will drag drier air into the region tonight. This will
limit the convection to the highest elevations along the Divide
across the south in the afternoon. Temperatures remain above
normal today and will increase a few degrees tomorrow as high
pressure is allowed to nose in from the south.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High pressure idling over the Desert Southwest will maintain warm
and mostly dry conditions mid week. Wednesday and Thursday are the
peak in heating through this long term period, with a warm air mass
settled directly overhead. In fact, NBM shows a 90 to 100 percent
probability Moab will see triple digits both Wednesday and Thursday.
High probs of 100+ degrees trickle up basin, with over a 70 percent
chance across the Grand Valley to De Beque, and 60 to 80% along the
Hwy 133 corridor (Delta-Hotchkiss-Paonia). Needless to say, the
amplitude of above average temperatures ramps back up by mid week,
sitting about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Another closed low spinning off the coast of southern California
will nudge the ridge axis over the Divide Thursday evening.
Southwesterly flow ahead of this system will spread high level
moisture across the region, first in the form of clouds. Probability
for measurable precipitation increases over night, as the moisture
plume is lofted across Arizona along the low`s inland trajectory.
Friday looks like the best opportunity for widespread precipitation,
and a quick "cool" down, showing a 10 to 15 drop in daytime highs
from Thursday`s readings (i.e. at, or even below normal).

The low is launched to our northeast by Saturday, leaving a
transient ridge in its wake. Residual moisture keeps PoPs up along
the Divide on Saturday, however, warming creeps back in. The next
PacNW low displaced well to our northwest will maintain nearly zonal
flow overhead as we close out the weekend and for the beginning of
next week. Abnormally warm and dry weather returns by Days 6 and
7.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 1154 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and storms will develop over the mountains this
afternoon. Brief moderate rainfall rates and gusty outflow winds
are possible. KDRO, KGUC and KTEX have the highest probability
of these storms moving over the airfield but confidence still
not high enough to go beyond VCTS attm.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High elevation snow continues to melt through these warm June
temperatures. However, forecast stage and flow across major rivers
and tributaries are showing a plateau or are trending downward
through the remainder of the week. As a result, decreasing forecasts
have prompted the end of Flood Advisories across the Western Slope.
Diurnal peaks may briefly exceed bankfull and/or Action Stage
tonight across the Eagle River and East River basins, though, are
progged to drop below said stages tomorrow onward.

That being said, water flow is still running fast and high thanks to
on going snowmelt. Please continue to heed any closures and use
caution near riverbanks.
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&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW