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046
FXUS65 KGJT 142312
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
512 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening.

- Hot and dry conditions return Saturday with a few showers
  possible over the mountains.

- Hot and dry weather continues Sunday with southwesterly winds
  picking up resulting in critical fire weather conditions
  becoming more likely Sunday and Monday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southeast Utah and
  portions of southwest and west-central Colorado from late
  Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The center of the storm responsible for numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon was over the
Grand Valley at 21Z. Lift and steep lapse rates beneath its
center was responsible for a more active area of thunderstorms
over the eastern Tavaputs Plateau and the west end of the
valley. As advertised, the early onset of showers and cloud
cover kept afternoon highs down to near normal levels.

The trough axis slides east of the Continental Divide this
evening, but before then scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to linger, mainly over the Colorado mountains.
Subsidence beneath a transitory ridge later tonight will bring
clearing skies and drying. Temperatures rebound on Saturday
which, when combined with modest residual moisture is expected
to bring some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Diurnal cooling will bring clearing skies
and a quick end to afternoon convection Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There is little change in the synoptic pattern over the coming
week with low pressure in the Pacific Northwest with troughing
extending south into the Intermountain West, and ridging over
the Eastern States that keeps eastern Utah and Western Colorado
under a dry westerly to southwesterly flow. A series of
shortwaves move through the longwave trough that will pass to
the north, but with the dry air over the region, expect little
activity associated with these passing disturbances. That being
said, can`t rule out an isolated afternoon shower over the
northern mountains Monday onwards. Otherwise, conditions will be
sunny and dry across the region with west to southwest
afternoon winds gusting 25 to 35 mph over the higher terrain and
somewhat less in the valleys. With the dry air moving into the
region, hot temperatures and windy afternoons, near critical
fire weather conditions are possible for much of eastern Utah
and Western Colorado through the mid week. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for most of the region along and south of the I-70
corridor Sunday from 11 AM to 10 PM. A Fire Weather Watch means
that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur.
Stay tuned for forecast updates and exercise fire awareness if
you plan to be out this weekend.

The high pressure over the Eastern States builds to the west over
northern Texas and Oklahoma by Thursday with the low-level flow
shifting southeasterly to pull some gulf moisture up into Colorado
and over the Divide into the region. Look for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing over the southern Colorado
mountains Thursday afternoon, spreading north into the central and
possibly the northern mountains Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 507 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to march across the area,
bringing gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning, brief
heavy rain, and even some small hail. These storms are for the
most part through eastern Utah, although KVEL could see another
round in the next 2-3 hours. KCNY will continue to see gusty
winds from decaying showers over the nearby terrain, but this
should also come to an end in the next 2-3 hours. Likewise,
drier air is moving into southwest Colorado, bringing action to
a close for KDRO, and KTEX. Within the next hour or two, KGJT
and KMTJ will be on the other side of this system as well, with
clearing skies. KGUC, KRIL, KASE, KEGE, and KHDN still have yet
to see convection, and can expect to see it within the next
three hours, with clearing expected by 06z. Once this system has
moved through, skies across the region will clear, and winds
will become most light and terrain driven. Southwesterly gusts
return tomorrow afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening with weather
conditions transitioning back to dry and breezy for most
locations this weekend and early next week. Of particular
concern are strong southwest winds and low relative humidity
Sunday and Monday which are likely to generate critical fire
weather conditions. The HDWI peaks just below the 90th
percentile reinforcing concerns and therefore a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for southeast Utah and portions of
southwest Colorado and west-central Colorado from late Sunday
morning through Sunday evening.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for COZ203-207-290>293.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for UTZ490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...NL