Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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286 FXUS62 KGSP 171356 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 956 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high pressure builds in on Tuesday. High pressure atop the region will then suppress any storms from developing until moisture returns on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 945 AM EDT Monday...Mountain valley fog continues to gradually dissipate this morning and should be completely gone within the next hour. Thick cloud cover continues across the NC Piedmont and Foothills as well as the eastern SC Upstate this morning with thinner cloud cover noted elsewhere. Dry conditions are in place but showers and thunderstorms should start to develop across the higher terrain later this morning and early afternoon. Main change needed was the lowering of PoPs along and east of I-85. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Extensive upper ridging will remain centered just to our NE and continue to dominate the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS thru the near-term period. At the sfc, the center of robust high pressure will gradually drift SE and away from the New England Coast today and tonight but still dominate the synoptic pattern down the entire Eastern Seaboard. This will keep low-lvl SELY flow over our area today but also begin to advect some lower theta-E air into our eastern zones. With the upper ridge in place, deep-layer flow will also become increasingly weak with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly weak as well. This should favor diurnal convection over the mtns, where it will likely remain confined thru the day/evening. This is reflected in the PoPs, which are low-end likely across most of the mtns to only a slight chance over our SE zones. Sfc-based instability may be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm or two, but locally heavy/excessive rainfall will probably be a bigger threat owing to the expected slow cell motion. High temps should top out a degree or two above climatology for mid-June.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 AM EDT Monday: The effects of the building stout Mid-Atlantic/NE upper anticyclone is expected to suppress any deep convective development atop the region on both Tuesday and Wednesday, save for isolated diurnally fired ridgetop shower chances. Despite 595/6dm 50H height values atop the Carolinas, llvl easterly flow will temper warming, and maximum temperatures remain progged to be just around climo each day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 115 AM EDT Monday: The cwfa is progged to be within the southern periphery of the strong anticyclone centered along the mid- Atlantic coast to start off the period. Essentially a persistence forecast for Thursday, a continued suppressed atmosphere with high temperatures right around the mid-June climo. Upper ridging will be breaking down on Friday, and as the llvl flow veers to southerly, expect an uptick in sfc dwpts and temperatures. Piedmont lower 90s will be possible for maximums, and as the atmosphere becomes weakly unstable, a few diurnally fired tstms will be possible. Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the upcoming weekend thanks to the mean lvll flow around developing Bermuda high pressure. Piedmont temperatures could be flirting with middle 90s each afternoon.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Lower clouds will continue to scatter out at KAVL,KCLT, and KHKY by the late morning hours. Winds will remain light to calm thru the morning and pick up modestly from the SE again this afternoon and remain SELY thru the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening, with KAVL will having the best potential to see convection. Outlook: An amplifying upper ridge is likely to result in mostly dry/VFR conditions through Friday. Mountain valley fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning.
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...AR/JPT SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...AR/JPT