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512
FXUS62 KGSP 180742
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure atop the region will suppress any storms from
developing this week until moisture returns on Saturday. A heat
wave gets underway on Friday and remains hot through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3:25 AM EDT Tuesday...A few minuscule showers continue
to linger near the NC/SC state line early this morning. A layer
of fairly thick strato continues to expand over western NC while
portions of the Upstate remain mostly clear. A handful of sites
in the mtn valleys have already developed some patchy fog, but
it`s likely too dry for fog development elsewhere this morning,
despite the light to calm winds. The increased cloud cover com-
bined with the light SELY flow should allow low temps to remain
about 4 to 8 degrees above climatology this morning.

Otherwise, extensive upper ridging will remain in place across
the eastern CONUS through the period. At the sfc, robust high
pressure will remain centered over the north Atlantic and domin-
ate the pattern as far south as FL. This pattern will allow for
large-scale weak subsidence across our region today and tonight.
Winds will turn more ELY this aftn and pick up modestly speed-
wise leading to drier conditions overall. We might see some iso-
lated convection (at best) over the ridgetops, but that`s about
it. High temps today will be similar to Monday and slightly above
climatology over the lower terrain and near climo over the mtns.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 AM EDT Tuesday: Expecting to make little change to the
going dry and warming forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.  The cwfa
remains progged to be within the southern periphery of strong NE
CONUS anticyclone to start off the period.  With the attendant sfc
ridge axis just north of the region, an easterly flow will be seen,
countering the subsidence from the upper ridge, leading to near
normal temperatures on Wednesday.  Large scale subsidence remains in
place through Thursday while the sfc/llvl easterly flow weakens
thanks to the southward sinking sfc ridge.  Based on this, maximum
temperatures will be a few deg F higher, perhaps hitting 90 in a few
Piedmont locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday: The positioning of the upper ridge axis is
progged to sink south to pretty much atop the cwfa to start off the
period and begin a slow weakening trend.  There should remain enough
large scale subsidence to keep the atmosphere capped despite
promoting further warming to about a category above climo.  Despite
ever so slowly falling upper heights atop the region, enough
subsidence should linger to aid in further warming with some
Piedmont locations hitting 95 deg f Saturday afternoon.  Diurnally
fired tstm cvrg should struggle to reach climo values, with the
better chances acrs the mountains Sat afternoon/evening. During the
latter half of the period, daily tstm chances should steadily
increase coincident with the slow influx of Atlantic moisture and at
least some mean flow, but at this point, no break from the above
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
terminals thru the 06z taf period. The only exception will likely
be at KAVL where there`s a decent chance for some patchy fog and
lower cigs this morning beginning around 09z. I have prevailing
MVFR visby and cigs with a TEMPO for IFR visby and cigs thru
roughly 13z. Expect any lingering fog to burn off and cigs to
sct by late morning. Otherwise, things should remain dry across
the area today except for some very isolated ridgetop convection,
which does not warrant a mention in any taf. Outside of the mtns,
winds will remain SELY thru the morning and then back to a more
ELY direction by the afternoon and pick up speed-wise. I also
included some low-end gusts at the Upstate terminals for the
aftn/evening. At KAVL, winds will be light to calm thru mid-
morning and pick up from the SE again by the afternoon with
some low-end gusts expected there as well.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry
with VFR conditions thru Friday. Mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus may develop each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT