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404
FXUS62 KGSP 160612
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through
much of the week keeping temperatures above normal. There will
be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Then
drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 12:55 AM Sunday: we`ve still got some lingering patches of
showers over western NC as we head into the overnight. Weak outflows
from current showers could continue to generate more showers over
the next few hrs, but with decent amounts of CIN now present over
the area, it`s doubtful that we`ll see much if any more thunder thru
the morning. In addition, even though we remain somewhat mixed across
the area, any locations that received rain may see some fog develop
before sunrise as dewpts remain elevated compared to the past few
mornings. With the increased cloud cover, lows should remain about
a category above climo this morning.

Otherwise, things are expected to become more convectively active
across the mtns on Sunday as SELY bndy lyr flow develops and upslope
enhancement helps produce pulse type storms. Don`t anticipate severe
lvl storms as the environment remains negatively forced, but a couple
cells could reach SPS strength as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg.
Highs on Sunday should return to near normal values.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: The center of a large upper level
anticyclone will drift from the Carolinas to near NYC by 12z
Wednesday. This will place the forecast area on the easterly
flow side of the circulation. Enough moisture will linger for
diurnal convection to form across mainly the mountains Monday,
but severe threat will remain low. The day will start out with some
stratus/stratocu, but should scatter out by the aftn. Overall, temps
will be held to near normal, despite starting out warm. On Tuesday,
dry air rotating in from the NE and subsidence will combine to
preclude deep convection. Temps will be a deg or two above normal,
generally upper 80s Piedmont and mid 80s in the mountain valleys.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle
over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week.
This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees
above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of
the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers
and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: we`ve still got some lingering patches of
showers over western NC as we head into the overnight. This activity
may impact KAVL for the first few hrs of the taf, so I included a
VCSH for that site. It`s doubtful that the other taf sites will be
impacted. Low-end VFR to MVFR level clouds remain possible in the
predawn hrs, especially near KAVL and KHKY, but I was not confident
enough to go with prevailing restrictions so I kept cigs at 3500 ft.
Also, the low levels still appear too mixed for any substantial fog
development overnight. Otherwise, chances for sct diurnal SHRA/TSRA
will be somewhat better today than the past few days. Still anticipate
coverage being better over the NC mtns and SC Upstate with showers
possibly lingering well into the night and even overnight. Thus, I
included PROB30s for TSRA at KAVL and the Upstate terminals beginning
around 20z. For KCLT and KHKY, I left out any mention of thunder as
it appears less likely over that area. In addition, much of the latest
guidance has lower cigs spreading over the area just as the period ends
at 06z. Thus, I lower cigs at KCLT to MVFR for the last few hours of
the period since they go thru 12z Monday. Otherwise, winds will favor
a SE to NE direction thru the morning (if not VRB at times) and then
favor a SE direction thru the aftn/evening.

Outlook: Moist SELY low-level flow will persist thru Monday, helping
support another round of diurnal SHRA/TSRA. An amplifying upper ridge
is likely to result in mostly dry/VFR daytime conditions Tuesday thru
Thurs, however nocturnal fog/stratus could develop early each morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JPT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT