-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
659
FXUS61 KGYX 151040
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
640 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions will continue through the middle of next
week with temperatures running above normal. An area of low
pressure off the Southeast coast will lift north Wednesday
bringing increasing moisture to the region while the chances
for measurable precipitation remains low. High pressure looks to
build back into the region late in the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
640 AM...Just dealing with the lingering clouds over S NH, but
these should be mostly gone by 12-13Z, and no changes to the
forecast beyond of a sunny a warm day.

Previously...Theres a bit of an 850 MB thermal trough moving
through early this AM, and it has been producing some SCT-BKN
clouds in the 5-7k ft level over SW ME into srn NH. Should see
the ridging at that level return by around sunrise and these
clouds should diminish. I think some fog will also develop in a
few spots briefly around sunrise as well, but should be gone by
12Z in most areas. Otherwise today should be mainly sunny and
warm as ridging builds aloft and sfc high strengthens just to
our E which will allow SW flow to develop. Not strong enough to
prevent it from turning on or along shore on the coast, but
still should see highs around 80 across all but the coast which
will be closer to the mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight will be similar to previous nights, although maybe a
hair cooler. As the sfc high builds to out E overnight, should
allow some drier in along the coast, which may limit fog
formation there, but overall, expecting another with fog
developing in the sheltered areas and lows mostly from 50-55,
but some upper 40s in those normally colder spots.

Monday should be warmer still, as we get a stronger SW sfc flow,
and 850 mb temps push up to near 15C. This will allow for highs
in the low to mid 80s across most of the CWA, with mainly sunny
skies once again.. The immediate coast will likely be limited to
75-80, as will some spots in the ME mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layer ridging over the Northeast will continue to bring mostly
dry weather and temperatures running above normal through mid week.
Moisture associated with a sub tropical disturbance off the Carolina
coast will lift northward Wednesday bringing more in the way of
clouds and slight chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday. A
front moving through SE Canada may shunt this moisture back south
late in the week with high pressure building back in next
weekend.

Much of New England is running a 1-2 inch rainfall deficit for the
month of September and that deficit looks to increase through mid
week. Monday and Tuesday will see high temperatures into the 80s
with mostly sunny skies Monday and a mix of sun and clouds Tuesday.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow lows Monday night to
drop into the 50s with patchy fog.

Moisture associated with a disturbance off the Southeast coast will
lift northward Tuesday night into Wednesday. The 12Z model suite is
in decent agreement that much of the area will remain dry with
chances for rain increasing across southern NH late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Model solutions then diverge with the position of
any forcing for ascent to act upon this moisture Wednesday night
through Friday. The majority of ensemble members keep the forecast
area mostly dry during this period, although a select few bring a
soaking rainfall to the region. Have mainly stuck with the NBM,
which keeps PoPs below 20 percent Thursday and Friday. A trough axis
rotating through the Canadian Maritimes looks to send a cold front
through the region Friday with temperatures returning closer to
normal into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Some brief fog is possible for an hour or so around
sunrise at any of the terminals, but the thicker valley fog at
KLEB/KHIE will persist until 12-13Z. Otherwise VFR into this
evening, before valley fog develops once again, and maybe a
sunrise round of fog at other terminals as well. Then back to
VFR everywhere on Monday.

Long Term...Mainly VFR during the day time through the period.
Night time valley fog will be possible most nights that will
bring potential for restrictions for a few hours before
daybreak. Low pressure moving up the East Coast may spread some
rain into southern New Hampshire Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria through Monday
night.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through
the period as high pressure remains over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Schroeter
AVIATION...
MARINE...