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978
FXUS64 KHGX 170720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Mid-upper ridging and associated subsidence should keep rain chances
at a minimum. Though chances won`t exactly be zero around the seabreeze
and baybreeze in the late afternoon or early evening hours, any
shra/tstms should be quite isolated. In regards to temps...look
for readings closer to July/August type normals versus those typically
seen in mid September. 47
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Ridging over Texas with a trough over the Eastern Sea Board and an
upper level low over the Desert Southwest will keep an omega block
pattern in place through the end of the week. This puts 500mb
heights around 590-592 dam over SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures
ranging between 18-22C. Hot, above normal conditions should continue
continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Rain chances will be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers
over the coast and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this
period.

Heading into the weekend, the upper level low push towards the
northeast, flattening the Texas Ridge. PWs inland dip down to 1.0-
1.3" over the weekend as the center of the midlevel ridge shifts
over South Texas. Subsidence aloft increases, resulting in rather
robust capping between 800-700mb and thus suppressing rain chances
for inland areas. However, isolated coastal showers underneath this
cap remain possible, with rain chances progged increase into the
upcoming week. A 1-3C drop in 850mb temperatures should bring highs
down, closer to near-normal conditions, by early next week. This
means highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows largely in the
70s.

03
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions will mostly prevail with light winds. Like the past
couple days, can`t rule out some short lasting MVFR ceilings
and/or patchy fog in the 4am-9am time frame.  47
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.

03
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL)  95  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  76  95  77 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  80  89  80 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$