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157
FXUS63 KICT 200824
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Storm chances later today through this evening, with a few
  strong to severe storms possible along/west of the Flint
  Hills.

- Scattered to numerous showers/storms late Saturday through
  Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall likely.

- A couple more days of hot weather today and Saturday, with a
  big cool down Sunday into next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

PRECIPITATION...

THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...Subtle shortwave energy approaching from
the southwest combined with an old remnant frontal zone returning
northward will be the focus for scattered thunderstorm chances
increasing from the west-southwest later today into the evening,
especially along and west of the Flint Hills. A decent combination
of instability up to around 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40
kts should support a handful of strong to severe storms capable of
large hail and damaging winds. Given hefty downdraft CAPE values,
activity should tend to congeal and grow upscale fairly quickly,
transitioning the primary threat to damaging winds with time. After
about midnight tonight, increasing deep warm/moist advection should
transition the thunderstorm threat to mainly northern to northeast
Kansas, with a threat for marginally severe wind and hail.

SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON--SUNDAY NIGHT...This period will feature
increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave and strong cold front traverses
Mid-America. The best chances Saturday late afternoon--night will be
mainly along and northwest of the KS Turnpike, with these chances
gradually shifting south into southern and southeast Kansas Sunday
afternoon and night. Marginal instability should preclude widespread
severe weather, although a handful of strong to marginally severe
storms are possible. Additionally, seasonably high precipitable
waters and numerous training showers/storms will support locally
heavy rainfall, with the greatest potential for amounts exceeding
one inch over central Kansas, and also far eastern Kansas.

TEMPERATURES...

TODAY--SATURDAY...A few more days of above average temperatures will
prevail through Saturday, as southerly flow persists ahead of a deep
western CONUS trough. Widespread 90s to near 100 degrees are likely,
although widespread mid and upper clouds should temper highs a bit
Saturday. Heat indices 100-104 degrees are expected this afternoon
over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Much cooler weather is on the way, as a strong
cold front slices south through Mid-America. The cooler Canadian
airmass combined with widespread clouds and precipitation should
keep central Kansas in the 50s-60s Sunday, with 70s and 80s further
south. Deterministic and ensemble consensus keeps the region below
average temperature-wise Monday through Wednesday, with readings
getting closer to normal by mid to late next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

In general, VFR conditions expected to prevail through at least
00Z this evening, then chances for showers and storms will be on
the increase during the last 6 hours of the TAF period.

From now through about mid-morning, winds are expected to be
light and variable across the area as the frontal boundary that
stalled across the area on Thursday washes out. Eventually by
midday or into the earl afternoon hours, winds should be
uniformly out of the south or southeast at around 10 to 15
knots. Gusts up to 25 knots cannot be ruled out.

By around 00Z this evening, attention will turn towards
southern/southwest Kansas for shower and thunderstorm
development. This activity is expected to be isolated to widely
scattered coverage-wise, and should move northeast during the
evening and nighttime hours. Currently, confidence is somewhat
low that this activity will impact any TAF sites. However,
changes are possible in the next TAF issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC