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542
FXUS63 KICT 201727
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for storms Saturday night with a few strong/severe
  storms possible.


- Unseasonably hot temperatures expected to start Sunday and
  ramp up for the Mon-Wed time frame. Many locations through
  this period will see highs at or even a few degrees higher
  than 100

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Water vapor imagery shows some shortwave energy coming onshore
over Central/Southern CA with some northern stream energy over
the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, upper ridging extends from
the Mid Atlantic States into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At
the surface, high pressure is situated over the Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Northern Great Lakes region, with a
weak cold front from Central IL through Central MO and starts
to wash out across Southern KS.

A few storms have been lifting across central KS overnight in an
area of weak 850mb moisture transport. By 12z, storms should be
tracking out of the forecast area. Not much is expected to
change in the overall pattern today with additional upper
energy digging over Central CA and upper ridging centered over
the Tennessee Valley. The best storm chances tonight will be
well north of the forecast area in an area of good low level jet
convergence. On Fri, the western CONUS impulse will start to
quickly lift northeast and will track across the Great Basin and
into the Central Plains Fri night into Sat morning. A weak cold
front will then track south on Sat as the upper wave moves into
the Mid Mississippi Valley. Front is expected to move through
Sat night with some scattered storms possible along it. However,
confidence is low on how widespread storms will be as our
forecast area will be pretty far removed from the better upper
dynamics. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
with any storms that develop Sat night.

The main story through this forecast package will be extreme
heat that is expected to build-in by the start of next week.
This will be the result of upper ridging strengthening from the
Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains with 30C 850mb temps
moving-in by Mon and remaining through at least Tue. This will
bring widespread highs at the century mark or even a few degrees
above. These highs will be around 10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Diurnal cumulus field with bases near 5 kft will continue
through sunset. A stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out across
the area this afternoon but confidence in any impacts to the
terminals is much too low for introduction. Otherwise, southerly
winds will gust near 25 kt across the central KS terminals
through sunset with 5-10 kt thereafter.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF