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438
FXUS63 KICT 180733
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
233 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Showers and storms this morning, then later tonight with a few
  severe storms capable of wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated
  hail up to quarter size.

- Warm tomorrow and Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures coming this weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a strong mid/upper trough
beginning to eject to the northeast out of the Four Corners region.
A line of showers and storms continues to push its way eastward
through KS. This activity is not expected to be severe, but will
bring much-needed rainfall to western and central portions of the
state.

PRECIPITATION...

A second opportunity for showers and storms will arise later this
evening as a dryline sets up over west central Kansas. This will
provide forcing for showers and a few severe storms. Given decent
deep-layer shear (35-40 kts), curved low-level hodographs, and
moderate instability (1500 J/kg), supercells capable of producing up
to 65 mph wind gusts and occasional hail up to quarter size are
possible. These are progged to begin in west central KS around 23Z
and track their way east.

Looking ahead to the end of the week, a surface trough will move
through the state as the upper trough pushes across the Northern
Plains. This boundary will stall out over KS by Friday, and with the
arrival of the LLJ by evening, widespread showers are possible for
areas along and north of US-56. Persistent mid-level WAA will allow
for additional opportunities for rain in central and south central
KS through the weekend.

TEMPERATURES...

Above-normal high temperatures (upper 80s to lower 90s) are expected
to dominate the scene for one more day before highs well above
average (middle to upper 90s) arrive tomorrow and Friday. In
addition to this late-week heat, afternoon dewpoints in the middle
to upper 60s will provide an opportunity for heat indices
approaching 100 degrees, especially in southern KS.

The arrival of a cold front this weekend will bring a taste of fall
to Kansas, with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s to begin
next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A weakening line of showers and storms continues to drift
eastward impacting central Kansas early this morning. Storms are
expected to diminish in coverage with eastward extent as we move
through the overnight and early morning hours. We may see
isolated or widely scattered storms redevelop after 21-22Z as we
remain uncapped with some weak convergence along the pacific
front/dryline across central KS. Some transient MVFR ceilings
and/or visibilities may be possible under the heavier showers,
other wise VFR is anticipated with breezy southerly winds
persisting across the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM